172
FXCA20 KWBC 031821
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
121 PM EST TUE JAN 03 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 03 JAN 2023 AT 18 UTC: NORTH IN THE
DOMAIN...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND INLAND NUEVO LEON ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND VERACRUZ AND THE MEXICAN
PLATEAU ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE POLAR HIGH
MOVES AWAY...THE FRONT IS TO RAPIDLY BECOME STATIONARY IN AREAS TO
THE WEST...ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS. THE FRONT ITSELF WILL NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION GIVEN LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE
REGION. HOWEVER...AS PRESSURES IN THE NORTHWEST GULF START TO RISE
LATE ON WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL FAVOR
PRECIPITATION. LATE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY EXPECT
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA 15-20MM ARE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTH CHIAPAS AND WEST TABASCO. ON
THURSDAY...AS ONSHORE FLOW PEAKS AND A TEHUANTEPECER JET
DEVELOPES...EXPECT A PEAK IN PRECIPITATION AS WELL. LARGEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST VERACRUZ AND EASTERN OAXACA WITH
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY, MAXIMA 20-35MM. LESSER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN WEST VERACRUZ. TO THE EAST...EXPECT AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
CHIAPAS...CAMPECHE...TABASCO...NORTH CENTRAL GUATEMALA AND
SOUTHERN BELIZE.
ON AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN OF PROGRESSIVE TROUGHS INTO THE WEST
COAST OF THE USA...ANOTHER IMPORTANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE ON WEDNESDAY INTO CALIFORNIA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY EVENING
IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH FORECAST
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY MAXIMA 15MM.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DEEPENING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THIS
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO FORM A TUTT LOW LATE ON TUESDAY/EARLY
WEDNESDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO/VI AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THE TUTT LOW IS THEN FORECAST
TO MEANDER ACROSS PUERTO RICO ON WEDNESDAY...TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FOR THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND PUERTO RICO/VI. ALSO ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES
AS A MOIST PLUME INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN. ON
THURSDAY...POSITIVE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MOIST
PLUME...LOW-LEVEL JET AND THE TUTT WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE NORTHEAST DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WHILE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ISLANDS AND IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...SEASONALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE CYCLE...AS MOISTURE ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS
SEASONALLY LOW. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS OVER WESTERN CUBA ON
TUESDAY MORNING BUT EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER NORTHEASTWARD...DECREASING ITS STABILIZING INFLUENCE OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS WILL BE
REINFORCED BY AN INTENSIFYING MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. VERTICAL MOTION WILL ENHANCE BY MID- TO LATE WEEK
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...WHICH WILL LIKELY FAVOR LARGER RAINFALL
RATES. ON WEDNESDAY AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH ISOLATED MAXIMA
15-20MM ARE EXPECTED IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN
BELIZE...NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
NORTHEAST HONDURAS...NICARAGUA AND BOCAS DEL TORO PANAMA. ON
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL FAVOR A DISCRETE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION. THE LARGEST
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA
RICA WITH AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA 15-20MM.
THE DEEPENING TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN IS ENTERING IN
PHASE WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE ABC ISLANDS INTO EASTERN COLOMBIA ON TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST PLUME IN THE TRADES WHICH WILL
FAVOR AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA 15MM IN THE ABC AND
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
ALSO ON TUESDAY...VENTILATION BY THE TROUGH WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM FROM SOUTHEAST COLOMBIA/SOUTHERN VENEZUELA
INTO GUYANA AND SURINAME. MODELS FORECAST THE UPPER TROUGH
BECOMING STATIONARY WHILE AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENT REGION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS INITIALLY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH
PERSISTS INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT ENHANCEMENT TO SPREAD
INTO MOST OF COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THURSDAY/FRIDAY. ACROSS NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ENHANCED VENTILATION WILL FAVOR ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN THE
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM RANGE. IN
COLOMBIA...DESTABILIZATION AND MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE MORE GRADUAL. INITIALLY...LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DIURNAL CONVECTION ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL PRODUCE 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN MOST OF SOUTHWEST...WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA. A
DRYING ON WEDNESDAY WILL RESULT ON A DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND
ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. THE DESTABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
ON THURSDAY...PRIMARILY ON SOUTHWEST/WESTERN COLOMBIA AND THE
MAGDALENA MEDIO. A MOIST PLUME IS APPROACHING THE GUYANAS AND WILL
INTERACT WITH THE ITCZ GENERATING AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA 20-35MM IN FRENCH GUIANA AND BRASILON TUESDAY. THIS
INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY ON THE NORTH COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AND
EAST SURINAME TO AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA 25-50MM.
ELSEWHERE IN THE GUIANAS...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON THURSDAY PRECIPITATION DECREASES IN THESE AREAS TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/CHINCHILLA...WPC (USA)
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