931
FXCA20 KWBC 041222
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
722 AM EST WED JAN 04 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JAN
04/12UTC: IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT CENTERS JUST TO THE NORTH
OF PUERTO RICO. THIS ASSOCIATES WITH A TUTT-INDUCED PERTURBATION
THAT EXTENDS FROM 14N 66W...WESTERN PUERTO RICO...INTO 20N 69W.
THESE SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN INTERACTING FROM A MOIST PLUME PROPAGATING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...AND BOTH INSTABILITY AND LIFT
HAVE BECOME SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHERN PUERTO RICO...INCLUDING SEVERAL CELLS WITH LIGHTNING
FLASHES AS EVIDENCED BY GLM DATA. SOME PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
OCCURRING IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAJARDO
REGION...ALTHOUGH STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING EVEN IN
AREAS TO THE WEST OF CAGUAS.
THE TUTT LOW IS FORECAST TO MEANDER WESTWARD CROSSING PUERTO RICO
INTO THE MONA PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE NORTHEAST COAST OF HISPANIOLA. AS A POLAR TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY...AND IS FORECAST TO INTERACT
WITH THE TUTT FORMING AN OPEN UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO MEANDER
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON FRIDAY...TO THEN TAKE OVER AND
EXTEND FROM BERMUDA 27N 65W INTO HISPANIOLA BY SATURDAY. A FRONT
IS LIKELY TO APPROACH WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT CONFIDENCE ON ITS
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IS LOW AT THE MOMENT...AND IF IT IMPACTS
PUERTO RICO DIRECTLY IT WILL LIKELY BE ON MONDAY. IN THE MEAN
TIME...THE WETTEST DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE TODAY...WHERE SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN MOST OF PUERTO RICO. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS
ARE FORECAST IN EXTREME NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO...WHERE ENHANCED
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR A BURST IN ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY FAVORING MAXIMA OF 1-1.5 INCHES. IN THE SAN JUAN
METRO AND OTHER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO EXPECT MAXIMA OF
0.5-0.75 INCHES. AFTERNOON HEATING IS EXPECTED TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN CORDILLERA TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 0.5-0.75
INCHES. ON THURSDAY...WET CONDITIONS ARE TO CONTINUE. EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.5 INCHES IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN THE FAJARDO REGION INTO EL YUNQUE/LUQUILLO. IN WESTERN
PUERTO RICO AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.5
INCHES. A DECREASING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.5 INCHES ON FRIDAY
DECREASING TO 0.2-0.3 INCHES THEREAFTER. IN WESTERN PUERTO
RICO...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY FAVOR MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.5
INCHES ON A DAILY BASIS. HIGHER AMOUTNS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page