533
FXCA20 KWBC 042001
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EST WED JAN 04 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 04 JAN 2023 AT 18 UTC: A COLD FRONT IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. ON WEDNESDAY EVENING IT IS
FORECAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...THE CENTRAL GULF...NORTHERN
VERACRUZ...EASTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU. BY THURSDAY EVENING IT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINISULA INTO CENTRAL VERACRUZ. BY FRIDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS
FORECAST ACROSS ELEUTHERA AND ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS...NORTHERN CUBA...INTO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO OFF THE
COAST OF CENTRAL TAMAULIPAS. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...TO EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL
CUBA...CAYMAN ISLANDS INTO NORTHEAST HONDURAS. INITIALLY THE FRONT
WILL PRODUCE VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF. YET...A LOW-LYING INVERSION WILL ALLOW
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN IN AREAS EAST OF THE
CENTRAL SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL IN VERACRUZ/NORTHERN PUEBLA. ALSO ON
WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/CHIAPAS WILL FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. YET...NORTHERLIES IN SOUTHERN MEXICO
WILL ENHANCE OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND NORTHERN CHIAPAS. IN NORTHERN
OAXACA AND EASTERN CHIAPAS/CAMPECHE/NORTHERN GUATEMALA EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE CENTAL BAHAMAS AND ALONG MOST OF THE COAST
OF NORTHEAST CUBA. THE SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR 04-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN NROTHERN HONDURAS/ISLAS DE LA BAHIA AND
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE
PREFRONTAL TROUGH...FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS
AND THE NORTHEAST DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ALSO ON FRIDAY...REMNANT ONSHORE FLOW INTO
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ.
ALSO NORTH IN THE DOMAIN...A FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER NORTHERN
BAJHA CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY...TO FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM. ACCUMULATIONS WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER...AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST AND DISSIPATES ON FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
CHIHUAHUA...SOUTHERN SONORA AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...AN UPPER TROUGH IS MEANDERING ACROSS WESTERN
PUERTO RICO INTO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA/TURKS AND CAICOS FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
PLUME IN THE TRADES...AND HAS DESTABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT
SUFFICIENTLY THAT IS FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS. THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY...EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ON THURSDAY
EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE NORTHEAST
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE COUNTRY AND IN EASTERN
PUERTO RICO EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN PUERTO RICO.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...CONVECTION WILL BE MODULATED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH HAS ITS BASE
INTO CENTRAL COLOMBIA ON WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. IN THIS POSITION...IT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOWER THE SURFACE PRESSURES IN THESE
REGIONS...AIDING FOR THE RETURN OF MOISTURE AND DIURNAL CONVECTION
TO MOST OF COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA AS THE CYCLE
PROGRESSES...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL INCREASING TREND IN THE
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATING CLOUDS AND IN ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY. INITIALLY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN
FRENGH GUIANA...WHERE ITCZ CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND
AMXIMA OF 25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE GUIANAS EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. TO THE WEST...THE HEAVIEST IS EXPECTED IN
EASTERN ECUADOR WHERE LOW-LEVEL JET CONVERGENCE WILL TRIGGER
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN ANDEAN ECUADOR AND SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN FRENCH
GUIANA...SURINAME AND IN NORTHERN GUYANA AND NORTHEAST VENEZUELA.
IN COLOMBIA...EXPECT AN INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND AMXIMA OF
20-35MM IN MOST OF WESTERN COLOMBIA/EJE CAFETERO...WHILE IN THE
MAGDALENA MEDIO AND INTO THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND AMXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON FRIDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND IN THE SANTANDERES.
IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT A DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM. IN THE AMAZON OF ECUADOR...NORTHERN PERU...COLOMBIA
AND NORTHWEST BRASIL/SOUTHERN VENEZUELA EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN FRENCH GUIANA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND AMXIMA
OF 20-35MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE GUIANAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/CHINCHILLA...WPC (USA)
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