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FXCA20 KWBC 051226
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
726 AM EST THU JAN 05 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JAN
05/12UTC: SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POTENT TUTT LOW CENTERING OVER
EASTERN HISPANIOLA. THIS LOW IS STRONG ENOUGH THAT HAS
DESTABILIZED THE TROPOSPHERE SIGNIFICANTLY...FAVORIDN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PROPAGATED ACROSS PUERTO RICO
YESTERDAY AND ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...THE TRADES REMAIN ACCELERATED FROM THE EAST WITH A SLIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. THE SAN JUAN SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP 25KT
EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND LAYER BETWEEN 925 AND 500 HPA...WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE LACK OF SHEAR EVIDENCED IN TRADE WIND
CONVECTION MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN VI AND OFF
AND ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO. THE SAN JUAN RADAR
CONFIRMS A FEW SHOWERS IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUAN
METRO...BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY
MORNING.
THE TUTT IS FORECAST TO MEANDER NORTHWESTWARD ON THURSDAY TO THEN
BECOME ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING POLAR TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHEAST
USA/BAHAMAS. GIVEN THE MOVEMENT OF THE POLAR TROUGH...IT APPEARS
THAT PUERTO RICO AND THE VI WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH AT LEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH POSITIVE
INTERACTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY FOCUS OVER
HISPANIOLA...EXPECT ABOVE-NORMAL AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY...AND A
GRADUAL DECREASE TO MORE SEASONAL ACCUMULATIONS STARTING NEXT
WEEK. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS WILL CONTINUE TO CLUSTER IN EASTERN
PUERTO RICO...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.5-0.75 INCHES ON A DAILY
BASIS THROUGH SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD DECREASE
TO MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES AFTERWARDS. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN
THE WESTERN CORDILLERA WILL ALSO BE UNSEASONABLY ACTIVE GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND ENHANCED INSTABILITY. EXPECT
DISCRETE COVERAGE AND CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY. BUT THIS
INCREASES ON FRIDAY TO MAXIMA OF 0.5-0.8 INCHES IN NORTHWEST
PUERTO RICO. ON SATURDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.3-0.5 INCHES AND
0.5-0.75 ON SUNDAY...DECREASING THEREAFTER.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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