764
FXCA20 KWBC 051846
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
146 PM EST THU JAN 05 2023
NOTE: UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER DIVERGENT MJO...EXPECT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS WHERE
RAIN-PRODUCING WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST.
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 05 JAN 2023 AT 18 UTC: A POTENT UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE USA IS SUSTAINING A ROBUST
SURFACE FRONT INTO SOUTHENR CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO...AND BY
THURSDAY EVENING IS FORECAST ACROSS NORTHWEST BAJA CALIFORNIA. AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MEANDERS INTO THE CENTRAL USA...THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA ON
FRIDAY EVENING. IN AREAS TO THE WEST...HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY WILL
LOOSE DEFINITION AS IUT PROPAGATES ACROSS SOUTHERN SONORA AND
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA ON FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE FRONT
IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL COAHUILA. THIS WILL
FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN NORTHWEST BAJA CALIFORNIA
ON THURSDAY. AMOUNTS DECREASE RAPIDLY AFTER.
TO THE EAST...ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...OFF THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTHERN
VERACRUZ ON THURSDAY EVENING. BY FRIDAY THE FRONT IS FORECAST
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA...NORTHERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA...OFF THE COAST OF CENTRAL TAMAULIPAS. BY
SATURDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...NORTH CUBA...NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A SHEAR LINE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON FRIDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. BY
FRIDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...EAST-CENTRAL CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...NORTHEAST
HONDURAS. BY SATURDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...SOUTHEAST CUBA...CAYMAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL BELIZE WHILE
WEAKENING. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...EXPECT LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
TEHUANTEPEC/CHIVELA PASS AREA WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. IN CAMPECHE/EASTERN CHIAPAS/CENTRAL
GUATEMALA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
SATURDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM IN THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA...NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA AND
THE CENTRAL/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. SHEAR LINE CONVECTION WILL FAVOR
SIMILAR AMOUNTS EASTERN CUBA...THE CAYMA ISLANDS...AND 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTHEAST HONDURAS. ON SUNDAY...FRONTAL
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM IN RHE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND NORTH CUBA...WHILE THE SHEAR LINE FAVORS
SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/INAGUA AND IN THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. IN COASTAL BELIZE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. IN SOUTHEAST CUBA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A POTENT UPPER LOW CENTERS OVER NORTHEASTERN
HISPANIOLA ON THURSDAY...AND EXTENDS A BROAD TROUGH INTO CENTRAL
COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA. AS A BROADER POLAR TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...IT WILL INTERACT WITH
THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN OPEN TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST
TO LINGER ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...HISPANIOLA/MONA
PASSAGE...NORTHERN COLOMBIA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN THE
CARIBBEAN THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT ON SCATTERED CONVECTION AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INITIALLY...WHICH
WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE NORTHEAST
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE AFTERWARDS...EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON A DAILY BASIS PRIMARILY IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
NORTHEASTERN REGIONS. ALSO OF INTEREST...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
STRUCTURE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS/EASTERN PUERTO RICO WILL
INTERACT WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON SATURDAY...TO
FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...ACTIVITY WILL BE MODULATED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN A GRADUAL
DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOW AND MID TROPOSPHERE IN COLOMBIA AND
WESTERN VENEZUELA...AS WELL AS A LOWERING OF THE SURFACE PRESSURES
WHICH WILL DRAW RAIN PRODUCING SYSTEMS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A WEAKENING OF THE NOCTURNAL JET IN THE COLOMBIAN/VENEZUELAN
LLANOS STARTING ON FRIDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY IN MOST OF EASTERN
COLOMBIA. FURTHERMORE...AN ACTIVATING SOUTH ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE
ZONE (SACZ) ACROSS BRASIL INTO SOUTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHERN PERU
WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN MOST OF WESTERN COLOMBIA/EJE CAFETERO AND IN
THE WESTERN AMAZON BASIN. IN THE ANDES OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA/LAKE
MARACAIBO EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. ON FRIDAY
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL COLOMBIA...EXTENDING INTO THE SANTANDERES. IN THE WESTERN
AMAZON EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON SATURDAY
EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN THE WESTERN
AMAZON AND MOST OF THE EASTERN COLOMBIAN LLANOS. IN ANDEAN
COLOMBIA...WESTERN VENEZUELA AND THE EJE CAFETERO EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN NORTH-CENTRAL
VENEZUELA AND THE WESTERN VENEZUELAN LLANOS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/CHINCHILLA...WPC (USA)
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