495
FXCA20 KWBC 061243
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
743 AM EST FRI JAN 06 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JAN
06/12UTC: AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 25N 72W INTO THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH AN
INDUCED TROUGH THAT IS PROPAGATING IN THE EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS
THE MONA PASSAGE...FAVORING SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. OVER PUERTO RICO...SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA
SHOW A WER SHOWERS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE VI AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY TRADES.
THE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH. THE INTERACTION WILL RESULT IN A LARGE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR 35N 70W INTO THE
MONA PASSAGE AND NORTHWEST VENEZUELA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD...CROSSING PUERTO RICO FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. AS IT CROSSES PUERTO RICO...IT IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH AN INDUCED TROUGH IN THE TRADES FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST ON SATURDAY. MODELS AGREE SOMEWHAT ON
THIS EVOLUTION. THIS WILL LIKELY FAVOR A PEAK IN PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY...WHEN EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 0.75-1.25 INCHES IN
NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO AND IN THE NORTHERN VI...AND AMOUNTS OF
0.25-0.5 ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION IN THE CORDILLERA WILL FAVOR ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 1-1.5
INCHES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ENHANCED PRECIPITATION ON A DAILY
BASIS. THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A NOTICEABLE DECREASING TREND ONCE THE WORK
WEEK STARTS. CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY...THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO DUE TO ENHANCED TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE...WHICH WILL FAVOR SCATTERED MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES
ON FRIDAY AND SUNDAY...DECREASING AFTER. AFTERNOON AMOUNTS IN THE
CORDILLERA SHOULD BE MORE CONSERVATIVE...REACHING MAXIMA OF
0.3-0.5 INCHES IN NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON FRIDAY...1-1.5 INCHES
IN SOUTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY...AND 0.5-0.75 INCHES IN
NORTHWEST PUERTO RICO ON SUNDAY...DECREASING AFTER.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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