079
FXCA20 KWBC 061902
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
202 PM EST FRI JAN 06 2023
NOTE: UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER DIVERGENT MJO...EXPECT A
GENERAL INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION AND IN RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS WHERE
RAIN-PRODUCING WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST.
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 06 JAN 2023 AT 18 UTC: A FRONT IS
PROPAGATING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. BY FRIDAY EVENING IT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA...WHILE LOSING
DEFINITION IN AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST. ON SATURDAY EVENING IT IS
FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...NORTHERN COAHUILA...CENTRAL
CHIHUAHUA. BY SUNDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA INTO A WEAKENING BOUNDARY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE RIO
BRAVO. EXPECT VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
ANOTHER FRONT IS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION IN PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS/CUBA/YUCATAN CHANNEL. ON FRIDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...NORTH-CENTRAL
CUBA...NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. IT IS FORECAST TO LINGER IN
THIS POSITION DURING SATURDAY...AND ON SUNDAY EVENING IT IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIT. A
SHEAR LINE IS ALSO EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. ON FRIDAY EVENING IT
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...CAYMAN
ISLANDS...NORTHEAST HONDURAS. BY SATURDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS...SOUTHEAST CUBA...CAYMAN ISLANDS INTO
CENTRAL BELIZE. BY SUNDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS 23M 55W
INTO EASTERN HISPANIOLA. ON FRIDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN
PENINSULA...NORTH-CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
SHEAR LINE CONVECTION WILL FAVOR SIMILAR AMOUNTS EASTERN
CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
IN NORTHEAST HONDURAS AND SOUTHEASTERN BELIZE. ON
SATURDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
10MM IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND NORTH CUBA...WHILE THE SHEAR
LINE FAVORS SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/INAGUA AND IN
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. IN COASTAL BELIZE EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN SOUTHEAST CUBA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. ON SUNDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY
AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM DUE TO ENHANCEMENT BY A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PROPAGATING TO THE NORTH. SHEAR LINE CONVECTION WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...SOME DESTABILIZATION OF TRADE WIND
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE REGION LIES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA ON FRIDAY. NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH ARE FORECAST TO MEANDER EASTWARD SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION IN PUERTO RICO AND THE VI
ON SATURDAY TO FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
INTERACTION WITH A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH. AMOUNTS SHOULD DECREASE
AFTERWARDS IN PUERTO RICO/VI. YET...SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ON A DAILY BASIS TO
PRODUCE MORE CONSERVATIVE AMOUNTS. ON FRIDAY EXPECT MAXIMA OF
15MM. ON SATURDAY THIS INCREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM...PARTIALLY AIDED BY UPPER JET DYNAMICS. THIS WILL FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON
SUNDAY.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...ASIDE FROM SHEAR LINE CONVECTION...EXPECT
SEASONABLY ACTIVE CONVECTION ON A DAILY BASIS IN THE CARIBBEAN
COASTS OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WHEN EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
THE UPPER DIVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO IS AIDING WITH A FLARE UP OF
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SOUTH AMERICA.
FURTHERMORE...THE UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST VENEZUELA IS LOWERING
SURFACE PRESSURES IN NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CONTINENT...WHICH IS DRAWING RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS NORTHWARD.
THIS WILL FAVOR UNSEASONABLY WET CONDITIONS IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA ESPECIALLY BY THE LATE WEEKEND. FURTHERMORE...THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC CONVERGENCE ZONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND EXTEND
INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHERN PERU ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION. ON FRIDAY EXPECT THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IN THE AMAZON BASIN TO PRODUCE 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-70MM. IN SOUTHWEST/WESTERN COLOMBIA EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM WHILE IN NORTH-CENTRAL
COLOMBIA/SANTANDERES EXPECT 05-10MM AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT A PEAK IN PRECIPITATION IN THE
AMAZON...EXTENDING INTO MOST OF THE COLOMBIAN LLANOS...WHERE
EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. IN THE REST OF COLOMBIA
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM EXTENDING INTO THE LAKE
MARACAIBO REGION. IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST IN WESTERN
COLOMBIA WHERE AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA AND ALONG THE NET IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA/NORTHERN GUYANA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
AMXIAM FO 20-45MM. IN THE GUIANAS...EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION ON A
DAILY BASIS...WITH FORECAST AMOUNTS GENERALLY IN THE 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM RANGE.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/CHINCHILLA...WPC (USA)
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