903
FXCA20 KWBC 091944
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
243 PM EST MON JAN 09 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 09 JAN 2023 AT 18 UTC: A BROAD
MADDEN-JULIAN UPPER DIVERGENT PHASE IS CROSSING THE AMERICAS. AS
IT CROSSES THE REGION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS WHEREVER RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS DEVELOP.
A SURFACE FRONT IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NORTHERN
CUBA. ON MONDAY EVENING THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMKAS...NORTHERN CUBA...NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. BY
TUESDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE EAST TO UNDULATE A NEW FRONTAL WAVE
CENTERING ON A LOW NEAR 30N 59W. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE OLD
FRONT TO SUSTAIN A BOUNDARY ACROSS 26N 60W...SOUTH-CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...INTO CENTRAL CUBA. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO EXPECTED. ON
MONDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...SOUTHEAST CUBA...JAMAICA...EASTERN NICARAGUA. ON TUESDAY
EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...JAMAICA...NORTHEAST HONDURAS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SHEAR
LINE IS FORECAST ALONG 24N 62W INTO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA. IN TERMS
OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...INITIALLY...EXPECT POSITIVE INTERACTION
BETWEEN A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH AND THE SHEAR LINE AND
PREFRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. SHEAR
LINE CONVECTION WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
SOUTHEAST CUBA AND JAMAICA...WHILE SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
HAITI WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH. ALSO ON MONDAY...SHEAR LINE
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN EASTERN
NICARAGUA AND NORTHEAST COSTA RICA. ON TUESDAY...FRONTAL
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
CENTRAL CUBA. THE SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM IN SOUTHEAST CUBA AND JAMAICA...WHILE THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
FAVORS 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. ON WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY
AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND SOUTHEAST
CUBA. THE SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM
IN HISPANIOLA.
CONSISTENT WITH AN ACTIVE ATMORPHERIC RIVER SEASON ON THE WEST
COAST OF THE USA...ANOTHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTER EXTREME
NORTHWEST MEXICO ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT LIMITED
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM AS HEAVIER AMOUNTS LIMIT TO
CALIFORNIA.
THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER DIVERGENT MJO AND A PERSISTENT UPPER
TROUGH IN SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND HAVE DRAWN THE
ITCZ NORTHWARD AND ALSO BUILT A MOIST POOL OVER/WEST OF COLOMBIA.
THIS IS FAVORING UNSEASONABLY WET CONDITIONS WHICH ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST INTO THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE
CENTERS OVER NICARAGUA WHILE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN INTO NORTHEAST COLOMBIA. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO
MEANDER EASTWARD...LEAVING COLOMBIA/SOUTHERN VENEZUELA ALONG THE
UPPER DIVERGENT SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
IN THE LOW-LEVELS...THE PANAMANIAN LOW IS FORECAST TO BE THE MOST
ACTIVE ON MONDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR ENHANCED MOIST WESTERLIES ALONG
THE PACIFIC BASIN TO FAVOR SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION AND AMOUNTS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM FROM NORTHWEST ECUADOR INTO
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL COLOMBIA. IN THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A
PEAK IN INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT IN THE LAKE
MARACAIBO REGION AND SANTANDERES...WHERE EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CLUSTER IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA...WHERE
ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN ANDEAN AND NORTHERN/NORTHWEST COLOMBIA
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
IN THE GUIANAS...ITCZ/NET CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ON A DAILY BASIS.
THIS WIL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN FRENCH GUIANA
AND 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN SURINAME AND GUYANA ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH AND AIDS WITH THE ACTIVATION OF THE ITCZ. THIS WILL
FAVOR AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
GUYANA...WHILE IN NORTHERN SURINAME AND COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. A MOIST PLUME ARRIVES
FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A TROUGH AND THE
CYCLONIC EXIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL FAVOR HIGHER
AMOUNTS...FORECAST TO REACH 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GUYANA...WHILE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS OF
SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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