190
FXCA20 KWBC 111147
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
647 AM EST WED JAN 11 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 10 JAN 2023 AT 18 UTC: A BROAD
MADDEN-JULIAN UPPER DIVERGENT PHASE IS CROSSING THE AMERICAS. AS
IT CROSSES THE REGION...IT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR LOCALLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS WHEREVER RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEMS
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY FOR COLOMBIA...WESTERN VENEZUELA AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
A FRONT IS ENTERING NORTHWEST MEXICO ON TUESDAY...TO FAVOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO LOSE DEFINITION OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...AS THE ROBUST UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE ROCKIES...EXPECT THE INTENSIFICATION OF A POLAR HIGH
OVER THE PLAINS OF THE USA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE FRONT. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL. NOTE AN IMPORTANT NORTES EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL RESULT IN 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN NORTHERN VERACRUZ/HIDALGO BY THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. IN CENTRAL VERACRUZ EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH ESTABLISHING ACROSS THE GULF OF
CAMPECHE INTO TABASCO AND CHIAPAS WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS INTO CENTRAL
CUBA. THIS IS INTERACTING WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. BY TUESDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED AS A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TO UNDULATE A
NEW FRONTAL WAVE SOUTH OF BERMUDA. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTHWARD AGAIN AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS INTO SOUTHEAST CUBA. BY
THURSDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE
TURKS AND CAICOS...INAGUA INTO SOUTHEAST CUBA. A SHEAR LINE IS
ALSO EXPECTED. ON TUESDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA...NORTHEAST HONDURAS. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE SHEAR LINE IS FORECAST ACROSS HISPANIOLA...JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA...INTO NORTHEAST NICARAGUA. BY THURSDAY
EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA INTO NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA. THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM IN CENTRAL CUBA. THE SHEAR
LINE WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN SOUTHEAST CUBA
AND JAMAICA...AND SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN NORTHEAST HONDURAS AND
NORTHEAST NICARAGUA. ONSHORE FLOW WEST OF THESE LOCATIONS WILL
FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTHERN HONDURAS/ISLAS
DE LA BAHIA AND SOUTHERN BELIZE. ALSO ON TUESDAY...THE PREFRONTAL
TROUGH FAVORS 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN PUERTO RICO.
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ON
WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. IN SOUTHEAST CUBA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN HISPANIOLA...AND 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN NORTHEAST HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST NICARAGUA. ON
THURSDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN EASTERN CUBA...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE BAHAMAS.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN NORTHEAST HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST NICARAGUA.
AN UNSEASONABLY ACTIVE PANAMANIAN LOW CONTINUES...AS WELL AS
UNSEASONABLY LARGE VALUES OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN NORTHWEST
SOUTH AMERICA/SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A
CELL OF A RIDGE CENTERS NEAR NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS IS FORECAST
TO HOLD WHILE ELONGATING TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN COSTA RICA INTO
EASTERN VENEZUELA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO VENTILATE
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE REGION TO SUSTAIN MODERATE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. ON TUESDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...WHILE ELSEWHERE
IN ANDEAN AND WESTERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST ECUADOR EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN PANAMA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA/NORTHERN COSTA RICA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION...WHILE IN WOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND
NORTHERN ECUADOR EXPECT MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA
GENERALLY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM EXTENDING INTO
MOST OF PANAMA. IN COSTA RICA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM MOSTLY FOCUSING IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT A DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND IN THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION. ELSEWHERE
IN COLOMBIA EXPECT GENERALLY 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN
PANAMA EXPECT AN INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM...WHILE IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF COSTA RICA EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ITCZ CONVECTION WILL BE ACTIVE IN THE GUIANAS ON A DAILY
BASIS...ACCOMPANIED BY SQUALLY CONDITIONS DUE TO ACCELERATED
EASTERLY TRADES. TWO PERTURBATIONS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST.
THE FIRST CROSSES SURINAME AND GUYANA ON WEDNESDAY...TO FAVOR
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM IN GUYANA...AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN SURINAME. ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER PERTURBATION MOVES IN
FROM THE EAST TO FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN AMAPA
AND EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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