714
FXCA20 KWBC 111727
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1227 PM EST WED JAN 11 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 11 JAN 2023 AT 18 UTC: UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A ROBUST POLAR TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF THE
USA...A SURFACE FRONT IS SPEEDING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF
THE US AND NORTHERN MEXICO. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...NORTHERN COAHUILA. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...EXPECT THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE BASIN. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...NORTHWEST CUBA CENTRLA YUCATAN
PENINSULA...CHIVELA/TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS AND ALONG THE EASTERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU. A PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE WILL ALSO START TO
ORGANIZE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA INTO
NORTHERN COSTA RICA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SHORT-LIVED
NORTES EVENT ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALSO
DEVELOP A TEHUANTEPECER LOW-LEVEL JET ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE JET
IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY...REACHING MAXIMUM
WINDSPEEDS LATE ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WINDS REACHING 60-70KT. THE RAPID SPEED OF PROPAGATION OF
THIS FRONT WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL RAIFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...STRONG
OROGRAPHIC FORCING ONCE THE NORTHERLY WINDS INTERACT WITH THE
OROGRAPHY OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND
EVENTUALLY NORTHERN HONDURAS/CENTRAL GUATEMALA WILL FAVOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ON THURSDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM IN NORTHERN VERACRUZ/HIDALGO...WHILE IN SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ/NORTHERN OAXACA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ON FRIDAY EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM DEVELOPING FROM
CHIAPAS/TABASCO/SOUTHEAST VERACRUZ INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. AS
PREFRONTAL NORTHERLIES DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF OF
HONDURAS...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ALONG NORTHERN
HONDURAS INTO SOUTHERN BELIZE. ALSO ON FRIDAY...THE DEVELOPING
SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
NORTHERN COSTA RICA/SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA.
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/SOUTHEAST
CUBA...THOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS GRADUALLY LOSING DEFINITION. BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE TURKS AND CAICOS/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS INTO SOUTHEAST CUBA...WHERE
IT WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. A SHEAR
LINE IS ALSO PRESENT. ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...IT IS FORECAST ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...JUST TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA...INTO NORTHEAST
NICARAGUA. BY THURSDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN
HISPANIOLA INTO NORTHEAST NICARAGUA WHILE DISSIPATING. ON
WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS. IN SOUTHEAST CUBA EXPECT
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. THE SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN HISPANIOLA...AND 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM IN NORTHEAST HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST NICARAGUA. A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH-LIKE STRUCTURE ACROSS PUERTO RICO WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL. ON
THURSDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN EASTERN CUBA...AND LIGHTER AMOUNTS IN THE BAHAMAS.
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN EASTERN HISPANIOLA AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM IN NORTHEAST HONDURAS AND NORTHEAST NICARAGUA.
UNSEASONABLY WET CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA
AND NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING MJO
UPPER DIVERGENT PULSE AND ANOMALOUS HIGH VALUES OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AS THE MOIST POOL IN THE GULF OF
PANAMA/WESTERN COLOMBIA MEANDERS WESTWARD SLOWLY...EXPECT
RECURRENT CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA AND MOST OF PANAMA ON A
DAILY BASIS. YET...THE RISING SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE CYCLE WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
PANAMA LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THE AZUERO PENINSULA BY FRIDAY...WHICH
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN SOUTHWEST
PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN MOST OF PANAMA...WHILE IN CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. LARGER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHERN ECUADOR...AS A MOIST POOL MOVES IN FROM THE EAST AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED BY THE LLANOS LOW-LEVEL JET.
THIS WILL FAVOR AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT A DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM
IN NORTHERN ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL
COLOMBIA AND EAST OF THE ANDES EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35M. IN PANAMA EXPECT ONCE AGAIN 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45...WHILE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN OF COSTA RICA
FAVOR AN INCREASE IN AMOUNTS TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ON FRIDAY...ENHANCED VENTILATION ACROSS THE DARIEN WILL INTERACT
WITH AN INCREASE IN CYCLONIC VORTICITY AS THE PANAMA NORTHERLY JET
DEVELOPS. THIS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
EASTERN PANAMA AND NORTHWEST COLOMBIA. ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
REMAINING CARIBBEAN BASIN OF PANAMA WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL COLOMBIA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
IN THE GUIANAS...ITCZ MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION ON A DAILY BASIS. HOWEVER...ENHANCED
WIND SPEEDS INITIALLY FROM THE EAST AND FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AFTER THURSDAY WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WHICH WILL LIMIT
AMOUNTS SOMEWHAT. POSITIVE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE ITCZ AND AN
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY OCCUR OFFSHORE...WHICH WILL
LIMIT AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM IN MOST OF THE
GUIANAS ON WEDNESDAY. AFTER THIS PERIOD...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND
VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ON A DAILY BASIS. HIGHER AMOUNTS
ARE POSSIBLE IN AMAPA AND EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA ON
THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS STILL LIMITED.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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