949
FXCA20 KWBC 121817
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
116 PM EST THU JAN 12 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 12 JAN 2023 AT 16 UTC: A POTENT POLAR
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL USA IS SUSTAINING A SURFACE FRONT THAT IS
PROPAGATING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY THURSDAY EVENING
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN
TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON...INTO WESTERN COAHUILA. BY FRIDAY EVENING
IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...NORTHWEST
CUBA...ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...NORTHERN BELIZE...NORTHERN
GUATEMALA...CHIVELA/TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS...AND ALONG THE EASTERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU/SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. BY SATURDAY EVENING...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED ACRPSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS...WINDWARD
PASSAGE...JAMAICA...CENTRAL NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN NORTHERN EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN
GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN CHIAPAS. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON FRIDAY...TO EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST CUBA ACROSS JAMAICA
INTO BOCAS DEL TORO IN PANAMA BY FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY
EVENING IT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CENTRAL
CARIBE INTO THE DARIEN/GULF OF URABA IN WESTERN COLOMBIA/EASTERN
PANAMA. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO DEVELOP A SHORT-LIVED NORTES EVENT
ACROSS THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY...YIENDING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TEHUANTEPECER LOW-LEVEL JET ON FRIDAY MORNING.
THE JET IS FORECAST REACH MAXIMUM WINDSPEEDS LATE ON FRIDAY INTO
EARLY SATURDAY...REACHING 65-70KT. THIS EVENT WILL ALSO FAVOR A
PAPAGAYO LOW-LEVEL JET IN SOUTHWEST NICARAGUA AND NORTHWEST COSTA
RICA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START ACCELERATING OVER 30KT ON FRIDAY
MORNING...PEAKING AT 40-50KT BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY
SUNDAY. THE PANAMA/AZUERO LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO PEAK ON
SUNDAY...WHEN SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 30-40KT.
THE RAPID SPEED OF PROPAGATION OF THIS FRONT WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL
RAIFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...STRONG OROGRAPHIC FORCING ONCE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS INTERACT WITH THE OROGRAPHY OF THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL...SOUTHERN MEXICO...AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN
HONDURAS/CENTRAL GUATEMALA WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON
THURSDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN NORTHERN
VERACRUZ/HIDALGO...WHILE IN SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/NORTHERN OAXACA
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
STRUCTURE IN TABASCO/CHIAPAS WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM. ON FRIDAY EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN
TABASCO/SOUTHEAST VERACRUZ/NORTHERN CHIAPAS. FROM EASTERN
CHIAPAS...CENTRAL GUATEMALA INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS/ISLAS DE LA
BAHIA EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ALSO ON
FRIDAY...THE SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM IN BOCAS DEL TORO. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH STRUCTURE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST PLUME IN THE REGION. ON
SATURDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION ITSELF WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND THE TERRAIN OF NORTHERN HONDURAS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. SHEAR LINE CONVECTION
WILL INTERACT WITH DYNAMICS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN
THE NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE ISLAND
EXPECT GENERALLY 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SHEAR
LINE CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA/EASTERN PANAMA WILL FAVOR
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
BOCAS DEL TORO IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOIST ONSHORE NORTHERLY WINDS.
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/SOUTHEAST CUBA
ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING. THE
ASSOCIATED MOIST PLUME WILL FAVOR AN ADDITIONAL 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS...SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND MOST OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON
THURSDAY...DECREASING AFTER. A SHEAR LINE IS ALSO PRESENT...AND IS
FOREACST TO FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY...MAXIMA OF 15MM IN SOUTHERN HAITI
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN NORTHEAST NICARAGUA ON THURSDAY...ALSO
DECREASING AFTER AS THE SYSTEM LOSES DEFINITION.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA...ACTIVE CONVECTION AND
MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED PRIMARILY IN WESTERN
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR. UNSEASONABLY LARGE VALUES OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF PANAMA. MODELS
ALSO CONTINUE SHOWING AN ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENT
FIELD...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AS EASTERLY FLOW ACCELERATES WEST
OF THE ANDES. THIS WILL PROVIDE VENTILATION TO HIGHLIGHT ASCENT IN
THE REGION. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM
IN EASTERN PANAMA AND ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES IN NORTHERN
ECUADOR/SOUTHERN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COLOMBIA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON FRIDAY...THE
LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN EASTERN PANAMA AND NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA...FORECAST TO REACH AGAIN 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND ANDEAN COLOMBIA EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT SHEAR LINE
CONVECTION TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN NORTHWEST
COLOMBIA/EASTERN PANAMA...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA/LAKE MARACAIBO REGION...DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. IN WESTERN COLOMBIA AND IN MOST
OF ECUADOR EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
ITCZ CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE GUIANAS ON A DAILY BASIS.
EXPECT GENERALLY 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-35MM...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN AMAPA
AND EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA DUE TO ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ON THURSDAY AND SATURDAY
WHEN EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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