774
FXCA20 KWBC 131608
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1107 AM EST FRI JAN 13 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 13 JAN 2023 AT 16 UTC: THE SYSTEM OF
INTEREST IS A ROBUST SURFACE FRONT OF RAPID PROPAGATION...WHICH
ASSOCIATES WITH A STRONG POLAR TROUGH LOCATED IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION OF THE USA. THIS FRONT IS PROPAGATING RAPIDLY ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY MORNING.
BY FRIDAY EVENING...IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
BAHAMAS...NORTHWEST CUBA...ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...NORTHERN
BELIZE...NORTHERN GUATEMALA...CHIVELA PASS/TEHUANTEPEC
ISTHMUS...AND ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICAN PLATEAU/SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL. BY SATURDAY EVENING...IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TURKS
AND CAICOS...WINDWARD PASSAGE...JAMAICA...CENTRAL
NICARAGUA...SOUTHERN HONDURAS...AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
IN NORTHERN EL SALVADOR...SOUTHERN GUATEMALA...SOUTHERN CHIAPAS.
BY SUNDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...NORTHERN COSTA RICA. THE SYSTEM WILL
ALSO ORGANIZE A SHEAR LINE ON FRIDAY...FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM
SOUTHEAST CUBA ACROSS JAMAICA INTO BOCAS DEL TORO IN PANAMA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY EVENING IT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...CENTRAL CARIBE INTO THE DARIEN/GULF OF URABA
IN WESTERN COLOMBIA/EASTERN PANAMA. BY SUNDAY EVENING IT IS
EXPECTED FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA/GULF
OF VENEZUELA.
THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY IMPORTANT ACCELERATIONS OF THE
GAP FLOWS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. A
TEHUANTEPECER LOW-LEVEL JET IS DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY MORNING AND IS
FORECAST TO REACH MAXIMUM WINDSPEEDS LATE ON FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY...PEAKING AT 65-70KT. THE PAPAGAYO/NICARAGUA LOW-LEVEL
JET IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO START
ACCELERATING OVER 30KT ON FRIDAY MORNING...PEAKING AT 40-50KT
BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING AND MIDDAY SUNDAY. THE PANAMA/AZUERO
LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO PEAK ON SUNDAY...WHEN SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH 30-40KT.
THE RAPID SPEED OF PROPAGATION OF THIS FRONT WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL
RAIFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...STRONG OROGRAPHIC FORCING AS THE
NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS INTERACT WITH THE TERRAIN IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERN HONDURAS/CENTRAL GUATEMALA WILL
FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. ON FRIDAY EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM IN TABASCO/SOUTHEAST VERACRUZ/NORTHERN CHIAPAS.
FROM EASTERN CHIAPAS...CENTRAL GUATEMALA INTO NORTHERN
HONDURAS/ISLAS DE LA BAHIA EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM. ALSO ON FRIDAY...THE SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN BOCAS DEL TORO. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH
STRUCTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MOIST PLUME IN THE
REGION. THE FORMING SHEAR LINE WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15MM IN JAMAICA AND 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN
PANAMA. ON SATURDAY...FRONTAL CONVECTION ITSELF WILL PRODUCE LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS...HOWEVER INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERLY WINDS
AND THE TERRAIN OF NORTHERN HONDURAS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA
EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS. SHEAR LINE CONVECTION WILL INTERACT WITH
DYNAMICS IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER HISPANIOLA. THIS
WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN THE NORTHERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WHILE ELSEWHERE IN THE ISLAND EXPECT
GENERALLY 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SHEAR LINE
CONVECTION IN NORTHWEST COLOMBIA/EASTERN PANAMA WILL FAVOR
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN
BOCAS DEL TORO IN ASSOCIATION WITH MOIST ONSHORE NORTHERLY WINDS.
ON SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR COSTA RICA...IT
WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN PUERTO RICO
EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...AND IN THE VI
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. CONVECTION ALONG THE REST OF
THE SHEAR LINE WILL BE MORE ISOLATED GIVEN INTERACTION WITH THE
DIVERGENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA/ABC ISLANDS. ALSO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN ENHANCED IN EASTERN PANAMA/GULF OF URABA
FAVORING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. LOWER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN PANAMA WITH AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY RETURN IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA/SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL IN THE
REGION...ESPECIALLY IN COLOMBIA...PANAMA AND VENEZUELA. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS STRENGTHENING ACROSS NICARAGUA...SAN
ANDRES/PROVIDENCIA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. AS THE
RIDGE PERSISTS AND EXPANDS...THIS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN THE
TRADE WIND CAP AND FAVOR A DECREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE...FAVORING A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IN VENEZUELA AND
NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEAN
TIME...HOWEVER...VENTILATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ENHANCED OVER
THE ANDES AND PACIFIC BASINS OF COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR...AS
DIFFLUENT AND DIVERGENT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER
LEVELS FAVORS ASCENT IN THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN NORTHERN ECUADOR AND VALLE
DEL CAUCA/EJE CAFETERO ON FRIDAY...INCREASING TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM FROM NORTHERN PERU ACROSS MOST OF ECUADOR AND
INTO MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL COLOMBIA ON SATURDAY. ON
SUNDAY...AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE ALONG
SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHWEST ECUADOR TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA EXPECT ISOLATED
CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN THE ANDEAN REGION AND MAGDALENA MEDIO. IN
THE LAKE MARACAIBO REGION EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 20-35MM.
ITCZ CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN THE GUIANAS ON A DAILY BASIS.
EXPECT GENERALLY 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF
15-35MM...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN AMAPA
AND EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA DUE TO ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COAST.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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