954
FXCA20 KWBC 171922
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 17 JAN 2023 AT 18 UTC: A POTENT TROUGH IN
THE WESTERN USA IS SUSTAINING A SURFACE FRONT THAT IS PROPAGATING
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. ON TUESDAY...THE DIVERGENT ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS WILL INTERACT WITH THE
WEAKENING FRONT TO FAVOR MODERATE PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA
TARAHUMARA...WHERE EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. NOTE
THE POTENTIAL FOR 05-10CM OF SNOW AND ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHWEST CHIHUAHUA. BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS CENTRAL
LOUISIANA...NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS...CENTRAL NUEVO LEON...NORTHERN
SAN LUIS POTOSI AND CENTRAL DURANGO. EXPECT LITTLE PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT GIVEN LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE. BY THURSDAY
EVENING...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...NORTHERN VERACRUZ/CENTRAL SAN LUIS POTOSI WHERE IT IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME STATIONARY. EXPECT VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL PLAIN.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND IS
EXPANDING TO AREAS TO THE EAST. INITIALLY...THE RIDGE IS ENHANCING
THE TRADE WIND CAP AS IT INTERACTS WITH A POST FRONTAL AIR MASS
THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LOSE
DEFINITION ON TUESDAY...WHEN IT IS FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 16N SOUTN OF
PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA. THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15MM ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES ON TUESDAY. THE MOIST PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST IN THE EASTERLY TRADES ON
WEDNESDAY...TO FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN THE VI AND
EASTERN PUERTO RICO. ON THURSDAY...IT WILL REACH THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. YET...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS...EXPECT VERY CONSERVATIVE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO AND THE BAHAMAS. SIMILARLY...THE
MOIST PLUME REMNANT FROM THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO
NORTHEAST NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL
CLUSTER WITH THE ITCZ/NET. A MOIST POOL IS PROPAGATING WESTWARD
FROM PARA/RORAIMA SOUTHERN VENEZUELA ON TUESDAY...TO REACH THE
ANDES OF ECUADOR/PERU AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM AS IT PROPAGATES
WESTWARD. IN EASTERN SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA EXPECT GENERALLY
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-35MM ON A DAILY BASIS. AN BURST IN
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST VENEZUELA AND TRINIDAD AND
TOBAGO ON THURSDAY...AS A MOIST PLUME IN THE TRADES INTERACTS WITH
AN ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN IN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. TO THE WEST...DIURNAL CONVECTION IN COLOMBIA WILL
FAVOR THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS IN WESTERN PORTIONS. ON TUESDAY
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. THIS DECREASES ON
WEDNESDAY TO MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...INCREASING TO MAXIMA OF 20-35MM
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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