394
FXCA20 KWBC 181222
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
722 AM EST WED JAN 18 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JAN
18/12UTC: IN THE MID-LEVELS...A ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES
STRENGTHENING WHILE MEANDERING EASTWARD WHILE CENTERING ON A HIGH
OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIT AND EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST USA INTO
HISPANIOLA AND NOW PUERTO RICO. THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
RIDGE ARE NOT FELT OVER THE ISLANDS...WHICH REFLECTS ON A
LOW-LYING CAP AND STRATIFORM CLOUD STRUCTURES EVIDENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE REMNANTS OF THE SURFACE FRONT THAT AFFECTED THE
REGION LAST WEEKEND LIE ACROSS THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.
CONVECTION ALONG THIS MOIST PLUME IS SHALLOW IN NATURE AND...UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRENGHTENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...IS BECOMING
LESS ORGANIZED AND LOSING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE REMNANTS OF
THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...TO CROSS
THE VI ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PUERTO RICO ON EARLY HOURS OF
THURSDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. THE LARGEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEAST
PUERTO RICO WHERE MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES IS EXPECTED. ACROSS THE
VI EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.1-0.2 INCHES.
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE.
THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE STRENGTHENING WHILE GROWING IN
SIZE AND MEANDERING EASTWARD. BY THE WEEKEND IT IS EXPECTED TO
CENTER JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND EXTEND ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BASIN. UNDER THIS PATTERN EXPECT VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE
THE WETTEST DAY WHEN AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN
CORDILLERA FAVORS ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 0.4-0.6 INCHES AS THE MOIST
PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT FINISHES MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
WESTERN PUERTO RICO. AFTER THIS PERIOD...EXPECT ISOLATED ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...PRODUCING MAXIMA GENERALLY UNDER 0.2
INCHES/DAY MOSTLY IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO IN MORNING HOURS AND IN
THE WESTERN CORDILLERA IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW WEAK PERTURBATIONS
IN THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST...BUT LIMITED
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE WILL
LIMIT THEIR IMPACT ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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