811
FXCA20 KWBC 181747
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1246 PM EST WED JAN 18 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 18 JAN 2023 AT 18 UTC: A POTENT POLAR
TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL USA IS SUSTAINING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN USA. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...NORTHERN TAMAULIPAS...CENTRAL NUEVO
LEON...CENTRAL DURANGO. ON THURSDAY...IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...CENTRAL GULF...INTO A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS. BY FRIDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTH TEXAS. LIMITED AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS NEAR THE FLORIDA STRAIT ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR GENERALIZED FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA. A MOIST PLUME IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN INTO
THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN NORTHEAST NICARAGUA/EASTERN HONDURAS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM ON FRIDAY.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...VENTILATION ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE BOLIVIAN HIGH IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
MOST OF THE AMAZON BASIN AND NORTHWEST SOUTH AMERICA. THIS...IN
COMBINATION WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT IN THE
GULF OF PANAMA IS SUSTAINING UNSEASONABLY ACTIVE CONDITIONS IN
COLOMBIA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS VENTILATION IN THE
NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO HOLD AND INCREASE
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM FROM NORTHERN ECUADOR INTO THE EJE CAFETERO AND THE CHOCO.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXPECT 05-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-35MM
FROM NORTHERN ECUADOR INTO CENTRAL COLOMBIA...WHILE IN NORTHERN
COLOMBIA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
LARGER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AMAZON BASIN...AS AN EASTERLY
WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE FORMIDABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE BOLIVIAN HIGH. THIS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM FROM AMAZONAS-BRASIL INTO SOUTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE
ORIENTE ECUATORIANO. ON THURSDAY THIS PEAKS AT 15-30MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 40-80MM WITH A RISK FOR MCS FORMATION. THIS DECREASES
AFTER.
IN THE GUIANAS...ITCZ CONVERGENCE WILL INITIALLY PEAK IN AMAPA TO
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. THIS DECREASES TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM ON THURSDAY...AND ON FRIDAY
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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