184
FXCA20 KWBC 191929
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 PM EST THU JAN 19 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 19 JAN 2023 AT 18 UTC: A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY. BY THE EVENING IT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS. BY FRIDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS. ON SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN THE MID-UPPER TROPOSPHERE WILL INTERACT WITH THE RIGHT
DIVERGENT ENTRANCE OF AN UPPER JET TO FAVOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL DEVELOP A NEW FRONTAL WAVE. BY
SUNDAY EVENING...EXPECT A BOUNDARY ACROSS 30N 60W...EXTREME
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...CENTRAL FLORIDA...A LOW IN SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA...AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF INTO
SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS. GIVEN LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...A STRENGTHENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE. INITIALLY...THE RIDGE IS ANALYZED CENTERING ON A
HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND EXTENDING FROM EASTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHERN USA INTO THE SOUTHEAST CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MEANDER EASTWARD TO CENTER OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS
BY SATURDAY EVENING WHILE CONTINUING TO LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
OF TRADE WIND CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. THE ONLY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED IN THE BASIN WILL CLUSTER IN
EASTERN NICARAGUA/HONDURAS IN ASOCIATION WITH A MOIST PLUME. THIS
WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-25MM THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. ON FRIDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
THIS REGION....DECREASING AFTER. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...ANY
ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED AND PRODUCE VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
IN SOUTH AMERICA...THE AMAZON BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST
ACTIVE REGION AS THE BOLIVIAN HIGH/SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE REMAINS
STRONG...SETTING UP ITS UPPER DIVERGENT TIER ACROSS THE WESTERN
AMAZON. IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE...THIS
WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHERN PERU/ECUADOR AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWEST BRASIL ON THURSDAY...WHERE
EXPECT 15-30MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM WITH A RISK OF MCS
FORMATION. AFTER THIS PERIOD...THE STRONGER CONVECTION IN THE
AMAZON BASIN IS EXPECTED TO RELOCATE TO THE EAST...BASED ON
CHANGES IN THE UPPER FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM ACROSS NORTHWEST BRASIL ON FRIDAY...WHILE ON SATURDAY
EXPECT10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN PARA/RORAIMA AND
THESOUTHERN GUIANAS. AN EASTERLY WAVE AND THE CONVERGENT AND
CYCLONIC EXIT OF A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FAVOR HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
AMAPA/FRENCH GUIANA. ALSO ON SATURDAY...A TROUGH WILL FAVOR MAXIMA
OF 20-40MM IN GUYANA.
TO THE WEST...ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN ECUADOR AND
SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA ON A DAILY BASIS. ON FRIDAY...WEAK ONSHORE FLOW
ALONG THE COAST OF ECUADOR WILL INTERACT WITH FAVORABLE
VENTILATION TO TRIGGER AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN COASTAL ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA...WHILE IN WESTERN COLOMBIA AND THE EJE CAFETERO EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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