022
FXCA20 KWBC 202010
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 20 JAN 2023 AT 18 UTC: A FRONT EXTENDS
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY
EVENING...IT IS EXPECTED ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE RIO BRAVO.
ON SATURDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INTO CENTRAL TAMAULIPAS. BY SUNDAY
EVENING...IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL VERACRUZ...WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
STATIONARY AND START LOSING DEFINITION THEREAFTER.
INITIALLY...LIMITED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LIMIT ANY SIGFNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT. BUT ON SUNDAY...INTERACTION OF THE
NORTES WITH THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM CENTRAL VERACRUZ/NORTHERN OAXACA INTO
NORTHERN VERACRUZ/NORTHERN PUEBLA.
OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
20N 55W INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO HAVE
LITTLE EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION IN THE CARIBBEAN...GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF A ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE EXPANDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST USA/SOUTHERN MEXICO INTO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE. THIS WILL LIMIT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF ANY CONVECTION THAT
FORMS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. ONLY EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA WILL
RECEIVE AMOUNTS HIGHER THAN 10MM/DAY ON OCCASIONS DUE TO ENHANCED
TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. ON FRIDAY EXPECT ISOLATED MAXIMA UP TO
15MM IN EASTERN NICARAGUA. THIS DECREASES ON SATURDAY...AND ON
SUNDAY EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS FROM BOCAS DEL TORO INTO SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA.
THE UPPEER TROUGH ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS
FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND DEVELOP A
CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...DRAWING DIURNAL
CONVECTION NORTHWARD TO EXTEND INTO THE DARIEN AND NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY BY SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UNSEASONABLY ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN ECUADOR AND SOUTHWEST
COLOMBIA ON A DAILY BASIS...INTIALLY FAVORED BY A CONTINUED
ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
BOLIVIAN HIGH. ON FRIDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-45MM FROM MOST OF ECUADOR INTOEJE CAFETERO AND THE CHOCO IN
COLOMBIA. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED COASTAL ECUADOR AS ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM. ON SATURDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN
MOST OF WESTERN COLOMBIA/EJE CAFETERO. IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND
COASTAL ECUADOR EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. ON
SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM IN MOST OF NORTHWEST COLOMBIA INCLUDING THE DARIEN IN
EASTERN PANAMA. IN SOUTHWEST COLOMBIA AND MOST OF ECUADOR EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
TO THE EAST OVER NORTHERN BRASIL AND THE GUIANAS...AN EASTERLY
WAVE AND ENHANCED VENTILATION WILL MODULATE PRECIPITATION.
INITIALLY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN MOST OF
THE GUIANAS...ALTHOUGH ITCZ CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS IN FRENCH GUIANA. ON SATURDAY...AN EASTERLY WAVE ARRIVES
INTO FRENCH GUIANA AND COUPLES WITH ENHANCED VENTILATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOLIVIAN HIGH. THIS WILL FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN FRENCH GUIANA...SURINAME AND NMOST OF
NORTHERN BRASIL. ENHANCED VENTILATION WILL ALSO STIMULATE
CONVECTION IN GUYANA TO FAVOR MAXIMA OF 20-40MM IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ACROSS ALL OF THE GUIANAS.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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