969
FXUS02 KWBC 202049
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
349 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2023
VALID 12Z MON JAN 23 2023 - 12Z FRI JAN 27 2023
...HEAVY SNOW THREAT FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST WITH AN EXITING
STORM MONDAY...
...SECOND STORM TO SPREAD A HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO
THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WORKING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD MIDWEEK
ALONG WITH A HEAVY SNOW THREAT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS
THROUGH THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST...
..SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN STORMY BUT PROGRESSIVE ACROSS MUCH
OF THE NATION GOING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TWO WELL DEFINED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS OF INTEREST. THE FIRST WILL BE AFFECTING THE
NORTHEAST U.S. GOING THROUGH MONDAY AND THEN EXITING INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA BY TUESDAY, WITH COASTAL RAIN AND INTERIOR SNOW.
MEANWHILE, THE NEXT CLOSED/DEEP SYSTEM WILL DIG ROBUSTLY OVER THE
SOUTHWEST INTO MONDAY THEN EJECT ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S.
EARLY IN NEXT WEEK, WITH A SUBSEQUENT TRACK IN A GENERAL
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN THE GREAT
LAKES BY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY. A BUILDING WEST
COAST/WESTERN CANADA UPPER RIDGE AS A +PNA PATTERN WILL THEN
HERALD A RETURN TO COLDER CONDITIONS FROM THE WEST TO ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AS AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGHING WORKS
DEVELOPS DOWNSTREAM.
..GUIDANCE/PREDICTABILITY ASSESSMENT
LATEST GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS REMAIN BETTER CLUSTERED THAN NORMAL WITH
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE DEPICTION ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ACCORDINGLY PREFER A COMPOSITE
BLEND OF THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET/CMC FOR MAX DETAILS CONSISTENT WITH A
PATTERN WITH HIGH PREDICTABILITY. ADDED INTO THE MIX SOME
GEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE INPUT FOR LONGER TIME FRAMES TO ACCOUNT FOR
INCREASING, BUT GENERALLY MANAGEABLE, FORECAST SPREAD. WPC PRODUCT
CONTINUITY IS GOOD.
..WEATHER/HAZARD HIGHLIGHTS
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM OF NOTE WILL BE AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
NEAR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY MORNING THAT WILL QUICKLY LIFT
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PROVINCES OF CANADA BY TUESDAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF PLOWABLE SNOWS FROM THE
ADIRONDACKS TO MAINE, AND A WIND-DRIVEN RAIN CLOSER TO THE COAST
WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY
SETTLE IN ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BEFORE THE NEXT DEEPENED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES. THIS STORM IS FORECAST TO WORK OUT FROM
A HIGHLY UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST/ROCKIES MONDAY. EXPECT A BURST OF
RAIN AND TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW UNDER AMPLE CLOSED UPPER LOW/TROUGH
SUPPORT. THE SYSTEM FURTHER DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/GULF COAST REGION INTO TUESDAY BEFORE TRACKING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THEN THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT MID
WEEK, REACHING THE NORTHEAST U.S. BY THURSDAY. THE BEST HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND
APPALACHIANS TO UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD, WHILE AN AXIS OF WINTRY
WEATHER SPREADS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST. THE GUIDANCE SIGNAL HAS INTENSIFIED FOR
EXCESSIVE RAIN. ACCORDINGLY, AN EXPERIMENTAL WPC DAY 5 EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOK (ERO) "SLIGHT" RISK AREA HAS NOW BEEN ISSUED FROM
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN A REGION OF BEST GULF MOISTURE INFLOW
AND INSTABILITY. SPC ALSO IDENTIFIES THIS AREA FOR A THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS FOR EARLY IN THE WEEK, AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
ACROSS MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK, MOST
AREAS ACROSS THE NATION SHOULD BE BETWEEN AVERAGE AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE AS BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT KEEP
ANY ANOMALOUS WARMTH AWAY.
HAMRICK/SCHICHTEL
HAZARDS:
- HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND, MON, JAN 23.
- HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND HEAVY SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH NEW ENGLAND, MON-THU, JAN 23-26.
- HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH INTO THE INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE EAST COAST, TUE-WED, JAN 24-25.
- SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TUE, JAN 24.
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST
TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, MON-WED,
JAN 23-JAN 25.
ADDITIONAL 3-7 DAY HAZARD INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND ON THE WPC
MEDIUM RANGE HAZARDS OUTLOOK CHART AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/THREATS/THREATS.PHP
WPC MEDIUM RANGE 500MB HEIGHTS, SURFACE SYSTEMS, WEATHER GRIDS,
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION, EXPERIMENTAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OUTLOOK, WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK PROBABILITIES AND HEAT INDICES ARE
AT:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST500_WBG.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/MEDR/5DAYFCST_WBG_CONUS.GIF
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/5KM_GRIDS/5KM_GRIDSBODY.HTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/DAY4-7.SHTML
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/#PAGE=ERO
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/WWD/PWPF_D47/PWPF_MEDR.PHP?DAY=4
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/HEAT_INDEX.SHTML
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page