003
FXCA20 KWBC 231230
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
730 AM EST MON JAN 23 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JAN
23/12UTC: IN THE LARGE SCALE...UPPER CONVERGENT CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INCREASING AS THE WET TIER OF THE MJO MOVES ACROSS AFRICA
INTO THE INDIAN OCEAN. THIS IS SUPPORTING THE STRENGTHENING OF A
LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER AND NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. ON MONDAY
MORNING...THE RIDGE CENTERS NEAR 24N 66W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN INTO NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WEST INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. THE RIDGE IS SUSTAINING A ROBUST
TRADE WIND CAP ACROSS THE BASIN. THE SAN JUAN 00UTC SOUNDING SHOWS
A STRONG CAP SITTING NEAR 800 HPA. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE
PRESENCE OF A CAP BY THE STRATIFORM STRUCTURES DEVELOPING IN
ISOLATED TRADE WIND CONVECTION PROPAGATING FROM THE EAST.
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. IT IS FORECAST TO CENTER JUST TO THE
NORTH OF PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TO THEM MEANDER WEST
INTO EASTERN CUBA. THIS WILL FAVOR A LOW-LYING CAP ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...FORECAST TO LOWER TO NEAR 900 HPA...RESULTING IN VERY
LITTLE PRECIPITATION DURING THESE TWO DAYS. A MOIST PLUME ARRIVES
FROM THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH AN INCREASE OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER TO 1.2-1.4 INCHES. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
ENHANCE THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATING CONVECTION...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LOW. EXPECT MAXIMA NEAR 0.1 INCHES IN
EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CORDILLERA. THE TRADE WIND CAP STRENGTHENS ON THURSDAY...FAVORING
ANOTHER DAY WITH LIMITED DEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY
INCREASES ONCE AGAIN ON FRIDAY AS A MOIST PLUME MOVES IN FROM THE
EAST-NORTHEAST. YET...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO REMAIN UNDER 0.2
INCHES/DAY FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE CORDILLERA...AND FROM
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF PUERTO RICO.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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