275
FXCA20 KWBC 232039
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
338 PM EST MON JAN 23 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 23 JAN 2023 AT 19 UTC: A ROBUST UPPER
TROUGH CENTERS ON AN UPPER LOW IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA ON MONDAY
MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS SUSTAINING A SURFACE FRONT ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO. ON MONDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE EL PASO AREA...CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA...SOUTHERN SONORA INTO
CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. BY TUESDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS
CENTRAL LOUISIANA...CENTRAL TAMAULIPAS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING IT IS
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...THE NORTHWEST YUCATAN
PENINSULA...SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...CHIVELA PASS/TEHUANTEPEC
ISTHMUS...AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. INITIALLY...THE
UPPER TROUGH WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SNOWFALL IN THE SIERRA TARAHUMARA IN NORTHWEST MEXICO...WITH
FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 04-08CM THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT LITTLE PRECIPITATION IN MEXICO WITH THIS
BOUNBDARY GIVEN LIMITED AMOUNTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE. ON
WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW INTO TSOUTHERN VERACRUZ/TABASCO WILL
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL/COASTAL PLAIN OF VERACRUZ...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH STRUCTURE ALONG THE CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO BELIZE WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM...WHILE IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND BELIZE EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM.
ANOTHER FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ON MONDAY. TTHIS FRONT IS BECOMING
ZONALLY ORIENTED AND WEAKENING...WHICH WILL LIMIT MAXIMA IN
EASTERN MEXICO TO 10MM/DAY ON MONDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY PRODUCING VERY
LIMITED PRECIPITATION...AND DISSIPATE AFTERWARDS.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...A ROBUBST MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERING TO THE
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
CYCLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE TRADE WIND CAP ACROSS
MOST OF THE BASIN...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WILL FAVOR TRACE RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES AND LESSER ANTILLES
THROUGH THE CYCLE. IN CONTRAST...AN UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADING
ACROSS EASTERN PANAMA/SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATES WITH A MOIST
PLUME THAT IS PROPAGATING ACROSS THE ABC ISLANDS AND NORTHERN
COLOMBIA ON MONDAY. BOTH THE TROUGH AND THE MOIST PLUME ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...FAVORING AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE CARIBBEAN LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN...WHICH IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE MJO BECOMING
INCREASINGLY UPPER CONVERGENT THROUGH THE CYCLE. THIS WILL
ENHANNCE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST
FROM BOCAS DEL TORO INTO EASTERN HONDURAS AS THE CYCLE PROGRESSES.
ON MONDAY...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15-20MM IN
EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEAST NICARAGUA...AND FROM SOUTHEAST
NICARAGUA INTO BOCAS DEL TORO. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN COSTA RICA TO 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN NORTHEAST NICARAGAU/EASTERN HONDURAS EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO FOCUS GENERALLY OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...WHERE EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. IN MOST OF
PANAMA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
IN SOUTH AMERICA...THE UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE BOLIVIAN HIGH BECOMES LESS
ORGANIZED. THIS WILL FAVOR THE LARGEST AMOUNTS IN CENTRAL
BRASIL...WHILE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NORTHERN AMAZON GENERALLY
LIMIT TO MAXIMA OF 20-40MM ON MONDAY...AND 20-35MM ALONG THE NET
ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN COLOMBIA...THE RETROGRADING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE IN ITS MOST FAVORABLE POSITION FOR VENTILATING
CONVECTION ALONG WESTERN COLOMBIA ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR
SCATTERED AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SLIGTHLY LESSER AMOUNTS...CLUSTERING MOSTLY
WEST OF THE ANDES. TO THE EAST IN THE GUIANAS...EXPECT A DRY
SEASON WIND PATTERN TO PREVAIL. THIS CONSISTS OF ENHANCED
NORTHEASTERLY TRADES AND A TRADE WIND CAP THAT WILL LIMIT THE
VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LONG-FETCH
ACCELERATED TRADES WILL ENHANCE MOISTURE EXTRACTION FROM THE
ATLANTIC...FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED LIGHT TRADE WIND
SHOWERS ON A DAILY BASIS. THIS PEAKS IN COVERAGE BY MID-WEEK...BUT
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LIMITING TO 10MM/DAY...EXCEPT
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN INLAND PORTIONS OF GUYANA.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page