961
FXCA20 KWBC 242014
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
314 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 24 JAN 2023 AT 19 UTC: A ROBUST UPPER
TROUGH CENTERS ON A LOW THAT IS PROPAGATING EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS SUSTAINING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND UNDULATING A SURFACE FRONT. BY TUESDAY EVENING...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA...CENTRAL TAMAULIPAS.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...THE
NORTHWEST YUCATAN PENINSULA...SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...CHIVELA
PASS/TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS...AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. ON
THURSDAY IT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...NORTHWEST
CUBA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...CHIVELA PASS/TEHUANTEPEC ISTHMUS.
ON TUESDAY EXPECT VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. YET
ON WEDNESDAY...ONSHORE FLOW INTO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ/TABASCO WILL
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM. ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL/COASTAL PLAIN OF VERACRUZ...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-25MM. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH STRUCTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO BELIZE WILL BE THE FOCUS OF ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...TO TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-30MM...WHILE IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND BELIZE EXPECT
15-20MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ON THURSDAY...ENHANCED
ONSHORE FLOW INTO TABASCO/NORTHERN CHIAPAS WILL FAVOR 20-40MM/DAY
AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN REGIONS OF ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
UPLIFT. IN SOUTHEAST CHIAPAS/NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND
BELIZE...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. IN THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...A ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERS NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 22N...AND EXTENDS INTO
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA TO THE SOUTH...AND ALL OF THE GREATER
ANTILLES...EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST. THIS FEATURES IS
ENHANCING THE TRADE WIND CAP AND LIMITING VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE WEEKEND...AS IT
SLOWLY MEANDERS WESTWARD BUT MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE
BASIN. THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER CONVERGENT PHASE OF
THE MJO...WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE BASIN. THE
ONLY REGION WHERE MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IS THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA...WHERE SEASONAL TRADE WIND
CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON A
DAILY BASIS. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA
OF 20-45MM IN SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA...WHILE IN BOCAS DEL TORO EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...EXPECT
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA. ALSO RELEVANT TO THE CARIBBEAN...A FRONT CURRENTLY PRODUCING
VERY LIGHT AND ISOLATED PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...IS
EXPECTED TO MEANDER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OPEN
ATLANTIC....RESPONDING TO THE AMPLICIATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
LOSING THERMAL GRADIENTS...HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE IS FORECAST TO
ARRIVE INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON
FRIDAY...PRODUCING A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ALTHOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND MJO WILL LIMIT
ANY DEVELOPMENT OF SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...EXPECT SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO ESTABLISH UNDER THE COOL ADVECTIVE PATTERN
OF FAST 15-25KT NORTHEASTERLY TRADES.
AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERS OVER PANAMA AND IS FORECAST TO MEANDER
WESTWARD THROUGH THE CYCLE. THIS IS LEADING TO A REESTABLISHMENT
OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE UPPER TROOPOSPHERE ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...A DISORGANIZED BOLIVIAN HIGH SO THE SOUTH
AND THE COVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO ARE LIMITING
VENTILATIONS...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED DECREASE OF REGIONS PRONE
TO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AS SURFACE PRESSURES INCREASES ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN...AN INCREASE OF SPEED OF DRIER
NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING THE CURRENT DRYING
TREND ACROSS THE GUIANAS...VENEZUELA AND MOST OF EASTERN COLOMBIA.
MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION WILL CLUSTER IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN AMAZON...AND ALONG THE PACIFIC BASIN OF COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR. EXPECT AMOUNTS GENERALLY ON THE 10-15MM/DAY AND ISOLATED
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM RANGE.
TROPICAL WAVES/TUTT INDUCED PERTURBATIONS/TRADE WIND SURGES
INITIALIZED AT 12 UTC:
NONE
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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