722
FXCA20 KWBC 251948
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
248 PM EST WED JAN 25 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JAN
19/12UTC: IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH
ATLANTIC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA.
THE TROUGH IS STRUGGLING CONNECTING WITH THE LOWER LEVELS GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF A ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE CENTERS OVER
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ON THURSDAY MORNING BUT ALREADY EXTENDS INTO
MOST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHORS SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE MOIST PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT EARLIER THIS WEEK IS STILL SLOWLY CROSSING THE ISLANDS FROM
EAST TO WEST. THIS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED LIGHT CONVECTION
ACROSS THE VI AND IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PUERTO RICO IN A MORE
ISOLATED MANNER.
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND THROUGH TUESDAY...FAVORING A
PERSISTENT TRADE WIND CAP ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN.
THROUGH SATURDAY...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE LITTLE AND CENTER
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS/FLORIDA STRAIT. THEN IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER TO THE EAST TO RELOCATE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO BY
SUNDAY...CENTERING NEAR 22N 65W. THE TRADES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
FROM THE EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. IN COMBINATION WITH THE
PERSISTENT TRADE WIND CAP...EXPECT THE LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS TO
CLUSTER IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ACCRUING MAXIMA IN THE 0.2-0.3 INCH/DAY RANGE.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN THE CORDILLERA WILL FAVOR LESSER AMOUNTS
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THURSDAY...WHEN EXPECT VERY ISOLATED MAXIMA
NEAR 0.4 INCHES AS THE MOIST PLUME FINISHES CROSSING THE ISLAND
FROM EAST TO WEST.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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