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FXCA20 KWBC 271315
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
815 AM EST FRI JAN 27 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM JAN
27/12UTC: A SHEARLINE IS PASSING THROUGH THE LOCAL ISLANDS THIS
MORNING...CAUSING AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER IS UP TO AROUND 1.6
INCHES THIS MORNING...THE MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY
CAUSED NEAR AND AROUND 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR THIS
MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO...AND
ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.40 INCHES ARE FORECAST LATER IN THE
MORNING...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE...LESSER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST
ELSEWHERE IN PUERTO RICO AND ACROSS THE USVI AND OUTLYING ISLANDS.
THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHEARLINE CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTHWATRD...WITH BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
NEAR 1.0 INCHES FORECAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF
MOISTURE THAT WILL MOVE IN. FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE SHOWER
ACTIVIY IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PUERTO RICO AS WELL AS THE USVI AND OUTLYING ISLANDS IN THE
EVENING AND MORNING HOURS. THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CAUSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UNDER 0.25 INCHES OF RAIN EACH DAY
WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS AT AROUND 15-25KT FROM THE NORTHEAST.
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES CENTERED TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST OF
HISPANIOLA...AND IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DOMINATING THE
LOCAL AREA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND CAP...KEEPING CONVECTION SHALLOW OVER
THE LOCAL AREA. EVEN THOUGH WIND DIRECTION WILL BE GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTHEAST...SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY...WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH LIMITED
ACCUMULATIONS.
ALAMO/ACOSTA/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)
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