755  
FXCA20 KWBC 071248  
PMDCA  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
748 AM EST TUE FEB 07 2023  
 
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM FEB  
07/12UTC: A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL  
KEEP EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. A SURFACE  
LOW WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH A COLD FRONT  
REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...AND A SURFACE HIGH  
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY THIS AFTERNOON.  
THIS WILL KEEP WINDS FROM THE EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST TODAY AND FOR  
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS...CAUSING  
WINDS TO BE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 KNOTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH  
THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK. A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL  
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL  
DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WOULD HAVE AN AXIS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST  
OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS AND 500MB TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL...AT  
-10 TO -11 FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUT THE POSITIONING OF THE  
MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOT IN THE BEST LOCATION TO SUPPORT DEEP  
CONVECTION GIVEN THAT IT IS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE  
ISLANDS...THAT SAID...THE TRADE WIND CAP WILL BE ESSENTIALLY  
NON-EXISTENT FROM TODAY ONWARD. A TROUGH AT 250 HPA WILL DEVELOP  
OVER HISPANIOLA...AND IT COULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN  
INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY TO THE EAST OF PR/VI WHERE THE UPPER  
LEVEL WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST.  
 
FOR TODAY...THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS  
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES  
POSSIBLY REACHING 1.5 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. AS THE MOISTURE  
INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON...SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE  
SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF THE INCREASE  
IN MOISTURE...DIURNAL HEATING...AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE.  
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AVER A HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF RAIN ARE  
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN TO SOUTHWESTERN PR...WHILE  
AMOUNTS BETWEEN A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ARE  
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PR...GENERALLY WITH  
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WITH THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND WARM WATERS. THE  
USVI WOULD EXPECT AROUND A TENTH OR LESS OF RAIN...WITH SIMILAR  
ISOLATED AND BRIEF SHOWER ACTIVITY. FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD...THE  
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE UP AND DOWN AS PATCHES OF MOISTURE MOVE  
THROUGH...CAUSING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER TO BE GENERALLY BETWEEN  
1.5 AND 1.2 INCHES OR SO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...BUT A FEW  
BRIEF PERIODS OF BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE ARE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THAT  
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CAP FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE WILL  
BE A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY...WITH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL  
ACROSS WESTERN PR. TRADE WINDS SHOWERS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED IN THE  
OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY BUT THE AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL DEPEND ON  
THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. AT THIS TIME...TODAY THROUGH  
THURSDAY APPEAR TO BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN  
WITH MAX TOTALS NEAR A HALF AN INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH  
ACROSS THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE EACH DAY...THEN LESSER AMOUNTS  
OF RAIN...POSSIBLY UP TO A HALF AN INCH ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  
 
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)  

 
 
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