829
FXCA20 KWBC 081838
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
138 PM EST WED FEB 08 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 08 FEB 2023 AT 1845 UTC: TODAY...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER...EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
VERACRUZ...PUSHING COLDER AIR INTO THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US...REACHING THE
STATES OF GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BY FRIDAY EVENING...THOUGH THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERACRUZ...MAINTAINING A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER
THAT SECTION OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS...AS COLDER AIR
INTERACTS WITH THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. EXPECT
05-10MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 15MM ON TODAY...THURSDAY...AND FRIDAY.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...BUT A COLD FRONT IS
PRESENT FROM THE CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A PREFRONTAL
SHEAR LINE IS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN TODAY...DISSIPATING BY THURSDAY. ALOFT...A 250HPA
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WITH ITS AXIS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER VERTICAL CONVECTION TO
THE EAST OF THE AXIS...GENERALLY OVER AND TO THE EAST OF THE
LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE LEEWARD AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 05-15MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA
OF 25MM. FOR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...NORTHEAST
CUBA...JAMAICA...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO RICO...THE
FORECAST RAINFALL IS 05-10MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 15MM AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...WHILE REMAINING STATIONARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
NORTH OF CUBA. THE PREFRONTAL SHEAR LINE ADVANCES INTO PUERTO RICO
AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY...BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. AMOUNTS OF RAIN OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 15-25MM
ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES. LOWER
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA...WITH AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND JAMAICA ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 10MM.
THE TRADE WINDS ARE COMING FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST†AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL FRIDAY...PRODUCING LOW LEVEL JETS FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN TODAY AND THURSDAY. THE JETS WILL
INTERACT WITH THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN...SOUTH TO
PANAMA. OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE CARIBBEAN COASTS...MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN
THE AREA AT LEAST OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS...ARE FORECAST TO SEE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PANAMA WHERE
MAXIMAS OF 15-30MM ARE POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY THESE AREAS WILL SEE
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM. SOUTHEASTERN COSTA
RICA AND AREAS IN AND AROUND BOCAS DEL TORO IN PANAMA...ARE
FORECAST TO OBSERVE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
20-35MM...SLIGHTLY LESS RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...POSSIBLY OBSERVING 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 15-30MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE NET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFFECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIANAS AND NORTHERN BRAZIL DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS OF COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA COULD EXPERIENCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS WELL. FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF AROUND
20-40MM...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE
ACROSS SURINAME...FRENCH GUIANA...SOUTH VENEZUELA...SOUTHEAST
COLOMBIA...AND THE NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BRAZIL.
NORTHERN GUYANA...AND PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST TO SEE
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR MOST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL IS 10-15MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM TODAY UNTIL FRIDAY.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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