520
FXCA20 KWBC 091804
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
103 PM EST THU FEB 09 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 09 FEB 2023 AT 1845 UTC: TODAY...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST THROUGH THE ALABAMA/GEORGIA
BORDER...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH FROM ALABAMA INTO
THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF VERACRUZ...THEN NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL THEN PUSH EAST...BECOMING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...REACHING THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING...THOUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL UNTIL
SATURDAY. THIS FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER VERACRUZ
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND CHIAPAS HAS A CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS
BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE LOCAL AREA.TODAY...VERACRUZ COULD
OBSERVE 05-10MM WITH MAXIMA OF 15MM...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON SOUTHERN VERACRUZ INTO CHIAPAS WHERE
RAINFALL MAXIMA COULD BE UPWARDS OF 25-50 MM. FOR
SATURDAY...NORTHERN VERACRUZ IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE RAIN..BUT
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND CHIAPAS COULD OBSERVE 15-20MM WITH A MAXIMA
OF 40-80 MM.
A STATIONARY FRONT IS STILL PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...BUT A COLD FRONT IS
PRESENT FROM THE CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS FRONT IS
WEAKENING AND BY SATURDAY ONLY REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
OVER THE AREA. ALOFT...A 250HPA TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS...WITH ITS AXIS OVER
PUERTO RICO AS IT MOVES EAST. THIS POSITION WILL ALLOW FOR
GENERALIZED AREAS OF RAIN OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND TO THE EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES ARE
FORECAST TO BE NEAR 05-15MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 15-25MM FROM
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...EASTERN
CUBA...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO RICO...THE FORECAST
RAINFALL IS 05-10MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 15MM. LOWER AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED OVER HAITI...ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
JAMAICA...WITH AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM.
THE TRADE WINDS ARE COMING FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL FRIDAY...BECOMING EASTERLY
THEREAFTER...PRODUCING LOW LEVEL JETS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE JETS WILL INTERACT WITH
THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN...SOUTH TO PANAMA. ONSHORE
WIND FLOW WILL CAUSE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WINDWARD
SIDE...MAINTAINING A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT 3 DAYS. TODAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...ARE FORECAST TO
SEE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
15-25MM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PANAMA WHERE MAXIMAS OF 15-30MM
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND FRIDAY...THOUGH UP TO 25MM ON SATURDAY.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE NET IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
AFFECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIANAS AND NORTHERN BRAZIL DURING
THE FORECAST PERIOD. AREAS OF COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA COULD EXPERIENCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. FOR TODAY... PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
TO BE NEAR 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF AROUND 20-40MM...WITH
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION ACROSS SURINAME...FRENCH
GUIANA...SOUTH VENEZUELA...SOUTHEAST COLOMBIA...AND THE
NORTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BRAZIL. NORTHERN GUYANA...AND
PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST TO SEE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 15-25MM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR
MOST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL IS 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM FROM
TODAY UNTIL SATURDAY.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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