448
FXCA20 KWBC 101843
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
142 PM EST FRI FEB 10 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 10 FEB 2023 AT 1845 UTC: TODAY...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EAST FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA...THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO VERACRUZ. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN
STATIONARY FROM SOUTHERN VERACRUZ...NORTH ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH
CENTRAL FLORIDA...PAST THE WEST COAST OF CUBA...AND INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MAINTAIN A
CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY AND SATURDAY IN PARTS OF
VERACRUZ...CHIAPAS...AND TABASCO. ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT ADVANCES
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...THROUGH CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND INTO
CUBA...LOSING ITS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS FROM CUBA TO THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. TODAY...VERACRUZ...CHIAPAS...AND TABASCO COULD
OBSERVE 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM...WITH THE SURROUNDING
AREAS POSSIBLY OBSERVING 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-40MM.
CENTRAL GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS COULD OBSERVE 05-10MM WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. AS THE
FRONT ADVANCES EAST ON SATURDAY...PARTS OF
VERACRUZ...TABASCO...AND CHIAPAS...MAY OBSERVE AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPITATION OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 40-80MM. FROM EAST
CENTRAL TABASCO TO CENTRAL GUATEMALA...AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM MAY BE OBSERVED. BELIZE AND NORTHERN HONDURAS
ARE FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM.
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA MAY SEE
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. ON
SUNDAY...THE BAHAMAS IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE 00-05MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 10MM.
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS PRESENT OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS
AND FURTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TODAY. BY
SATURDAY...ONLY REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE
AREA. IN THE MID-LEVELS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND
26N 70W...REACHES INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND A MID LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED 15N 77W WITH ITS BASE IN PANAMA...WILL
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. FURTHER WEST...ANOTHER MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY SUNDAY
EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR GENERALIZED AREAS OF RAIN
OVER THE CARIBBEAN. TODAY...NORTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PUERTO
RICO...AND THE LESSER ANTILLES CAN OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 15MM...WHILE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CUBA COULD SEE
00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA.
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN...PRODUCING LOW LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE BASIN...TODAY...AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE JETS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...SOUTH TO PANAMA. ONSHORE WIND FLOW WILL CAUSE SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE...WITH PERSISTENT RAINFALL
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. TODAY...EAST HONDURAS...AND EAST
NICARAGUA MAY OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM. EAST COSTA
RICA...AND NORTHEAST PANAMA MAY OBSERVE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS MAY OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
15-25MM. AND ON SUNDAY...SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TWO AREAS...THE COAST ALONG THE
GULF OF HONDURAS...AND COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA. THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL CAUSE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP...POSSIBLY CAUSING AMOUNTS OF RAIN OF
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 25-35MM ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS. FOR COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN
PANAMA...10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-30MM IS FORECAST.
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICAâ€THE NET WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN
IMPACT IN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...SIMILAR TO WHAT HAS BEEN
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. MOST AREAS ARE OBSERVING LITTLE
TO NO RAIN...BUT ISOLATED AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE HIGHER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS. TODAY...IN
GENERAL...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...BUT THE WEST COAST OF
COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF BRAZIL COULD OBSERVE 05/10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON SATURDAY...MOST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL...WEST
TO COLOMBIA AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST TO
OBSERVE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. WHILE THE NORTHERNMOST
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE FROM 00-05MM/DAY
TO 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA FROM 10 TO 20MM. THEN ON SUNDAY...MOST
OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
15-25MM. HOWEVER...NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AND PARTS OF FRENCH GUIANA
IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-30MM...WHILE
PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF AMAPA IN BRAZIL COULD HAVE 10-15MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 20-45MM.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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