216
FXCA20 KWBC 131907
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
205 PM EST MON FEB 13 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 13 FEB 2023 AT 1845 UTC: TODAY...COLD AIR
IS MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO BEHIND A TROUGH THAT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATE OF THE US. THIS AREA ACROSS
NORTHWEST MEXICO MAY OBSERVE SNOW SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE OF
ACCUMULATION TODAY. BY TUESDAY THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST OVER LOUISIANA...AND ENTER INTO NORTH TAMAULIPAS IN MEXICO.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR NORTH TAMAULIPAS ON
TUESDAY. TODAY...THE AREA OF EAST SONORA AND WEST CHIHUAHUA MAY
OBSERVE SNOWFALL MAXIMAS OF 05-09 CM...WHILE WEST SONORA MAY
OBSERVE SNOWFALL MAXIMAS OF 00-05 CM.
A SURFACE FRONT IS MOVING TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...OVER SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...CENTRAL CUBA...INTO THE GULF OF
HONDURAS TODAY. IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY...MOVING
FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC...OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF CUBA. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE
OVER IN THE OPEN ATLANTIC. TODAY...SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND BELIZE...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF 05-10MM/DAY
MAXIMA OF 25MM IN BELIZE...AND 05-10MM/DAY MAXIMA OF 15MM IN CUBA.
ON TUESDAY...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA WILL OBSERVE THE SAME AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15MM...WHILE BELIZE HAS A VERY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...THOSE
AREAS IN CUBA AND BELIZE WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...THE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WIND FLOW. OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MAY BE THE MAIN CAUSE OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. IN AREAS WHERE THE WIND FLOW IS
PERPENDICULAR TO THE COASTS AND A LITTLE INLAND...THE FORECAST
RAINFALL CAN RANGE BETWEEN 05-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS THAT COULD
RANGE BETWEEN 15-30MM. AS OF TODAY...TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DAY
WITH LOWEST RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS.
THE CARIBBEAN LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND THERE IS
NO MID TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...ONLY ABOUT 00-05MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA
OF UP TO 10-15MM CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS.
NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS A LITTLE BIT MORE ACTIVE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE NET WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PORTIONS OF THE STATE OF AMAPA IN BRAZIL AS
WELL AS NORTHEASTERN FRENCH GUIANA MAY BE THE MOST ACTIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES OF 10-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMAS OF
20-60MM...WHERE TODAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE THE RAINIEST DAYS...AND
WEDNESDAY WOULD BE SLIGHTLY DRIER. AREAS OF NORTHERN BRAZIL...WEST
TO COLOMBIA WILL HAVE A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ISOLATED AREAS. RAINFALL ESTIMATES WOULD BE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 10-15MM WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 35MM. THAT BEING
SAID...TUESDAY LOOKS A BIT MORE ACTIVE...AND SOME AREAS COULD
OBSERVE UP TO 50MM OF RAIN. SOME AREAS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHERN VENEZUELA WOULD HAVE SLIGHTLY LESS RAINFALL WITH
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 05-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMAS RANGING BETWEEN
20-35MM.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page