595
FXCA20 KWBC 141848
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
147 PM EST TUE FEB 14 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 14 FEB 2023 AT 1845 UTC: TODAY...A TROUGH
IS MOVING EAST ACROSS LOUISIANA AND WILL EXTEND INTO NORTH
TAMAULIPAS. ON WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE
TROUGH...EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTH COAHUILA. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR NORTH TAMAULIPAS OR
COAHUILA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES TO THE EAST FROM LOUISIANA...ENTERING SOUTHERN
VERACRUZ. THE AREA OF VERACRUZ IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE 00-05MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM.
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING TO THE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...OVER SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...AND THE EAST COAST OF CUBA
TODAY. ON WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...AND TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. ON THURSDAY...REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH OF
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE MAIN
RAINFALL PATTERN WILL BE DUE TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS. TODAY...THE
EASTERN COAST OF CUBA AND PUERTO RICO MAY OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 15MM. THOUGH PUERTO RICO MAY OBSERVE ISOLATED AREAS OF
OVER 25MM DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
POTIONS. ON WEDNESDAY...DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAY OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM...AND PUERTO RICO MAY OBSERVE 00-05MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. ON THURSDAY...HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND
THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAY OBSERVE 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 10MM.
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...THE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL
WIND FLOW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MAY BE
THE MAIN CAUSE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL AND SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TODAY...THE COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...INTO COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA...MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF COSTA RICA MAY SEE 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMAS
OF 15-30MM. WHILE SOUTHEAST NICARAGUA...NORTHEAST COSTA RICA...AND
PANAMA AY OBSERVE LESSER AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
15MM. ON THURSDAY...THE SAME AREAS ARE FORECAST TO SEE THE SAME
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-30MM...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PANAMA...WITH FORECAST AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 15MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...STRONG CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE NET. STRONG WINDS
ARE MOVING FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GUIANAS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT
OVER NORTHERN BRAZIL AND PARTS OF THE GUIANAS AND AMAPA WILL BE
ASSISTING IN THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AREA.
THE EGDI ALGORITHM IS FORECASTING FOR LARGE VALUES OF EGDI OVER
THESE AREAS. THE VALUES DECREASE FOR THURSDAY. SIMILARLY...ECUADOR
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF COLOMBIA MAY OBSERVE HIGHER VALUES
OF EGDI ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DUE TO WINDS COMING INLAND FROM
THE WEST AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN LOCALIZED AREAS. TODAY...NORTHERN AMAPA IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE
15-20M/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 35-70MM. THE AREAS FROM THE
GUIANAS...NORTHERN BRAZIL...SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA...MAY SEE GENERALIZED AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 20-45MM. THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA MAY OBSERVE
GENERALIZED AMOUNTS OF 05-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMAS OF 15-35MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A GENERAL DECREASE IN AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. COASTAL AMAPA AND FRENCH GUIANA MAY OBSERVE AMOUNTS
OF 15-30MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM. AREAS FROM ECUADOR...AND
INTO THE NORTHERN BRAZILIAN STATE OF PARA MAY OBSERVE GENERALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM. MOST OF COLOMBIA
AND WESTERN VENEZUELA MAY SEE 10-15MM.DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM.
EASTERN VENEZUELA AND THE GUIANAS ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...AS THE NET
MOVES SOUTH...LOWER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST. SURINAME...GUYANA...AND
SOUTHERN VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST 10-15M/DAY WITH MAXIAMS 20-40MM.
NORTH VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN BRAZIL ARE FORECAST FOR 05-10MM/DAY
WITH GENERAL MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. WEST COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR ARE
FORECAST TO SEE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-30MM.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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