835
FXCA20 KWBC 151907
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
206 PM EST WED FEB 15 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 15 FEB 2023 AT 1845 UTC: TODAY...A COLD
FRONT DEVELOPS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO NORTH COAHUILA. NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR NORTH TAMAULIPAS OR
COAHUILA TODAY. ON THURSDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST
AND ITS LOCATED OVER MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...AND CENTRAL VERACRUZ...BECOMING STATIONARY OVER
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. THE FRONT ADVANCES TO THE EAST ON
FRIDAY...CROSSING INTO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...NORTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. HOWEVER, THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL WILL DISSIPATE AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ITS PLACE ON FRIDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL JETS
WILL BE PRESENT OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...WHILE
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS WILL BE OBSERVED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
TODAY DUE TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE US. ON THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE US...THE LOW LEVEL
JET WILL GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHERLY STARTING ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. IN TERMS OF
PRECIPITATION...A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN MEXICO...WHERE THE
BOUNDARY OF SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA MEETS THE SOUTHERN US COULD
OBSERVE LIGHT SNOW...WITH UP TO 6CM IN ACCUMULATION...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. ON
THURSDAY...PORTIONS OF VERACRUZ COULD SEE 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMAS
OF 15-20MM...WHILE SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND PORTIONS OF OXACA COULD
SEE 10-15MM WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-30MM...AND CHIAPAS COULD SEE
00-05MM WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. THEN ON FRIDAY...THE NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL CAUSE RAINFALL ACROSS TABASCO AND CHIAPAS...WITH 10-15MM WITH
MAXIMAS OF 20-30MM ACROSS TABASCO...AND 15-20MM WITH MAXIMAS OF
25-50MM ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHIAPAS.
A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT IS PASSING FROM THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS TODAY. ON
THURSDAY...WHAT REMAINS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH INTO
THE GREATER ANTILLES. BY FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND INTO THE
LESSER ANTILLES. POCKETS OF MOISTURE COULD BRING RAINFALL TO THE
AREAS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. TODAY...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAY
OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM. PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES COULD OBSERVE
00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. ON THURSDAY...THE SAME AREAS ARE
FORECAST FOR 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM. ON FRIDAY...MINIMAL
EFFECTS FROM THE REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED AND THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES COULD OBSERVE 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM.
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA...THE TRADE
WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WIND FLOW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD
WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FROM THE EAST. OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MAY
BE THE MAIN CAUSE OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE COAST AND SOME HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TODAY...SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN COSTA
RICA...AND PARTS OF EAST PANAMA...MAY OBSERVE AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMAS OF 15MM. THE NORTHWESTERN SHORE OF PANAMA
MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-30MM. ON
THURSDAY...FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN SHORE OF NICARAGUA...SOUTH ALONG
THE SHORE...TO THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF PANAMA...AND MAY SEE
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
15-30MM. EASTERN PANAMA MAY OBSERVE AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 15MM. ON FRIDAY...FROM NORTH HONDURAS...SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...TO PANAMA...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM MAY BE OBSERVED.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...STRONG CONVECTION IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE NET. STRONG WINDS ARE
MOVING FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE GUIANAS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN BRAZIL AND PARTS OF THE GUIANAS AND AMAPA WILL BE
ASSISTING IN THE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION IN THE AREA.
THE ENHANCED GDI ALGORITHM IS FORECASTING FOR LARGE VALUES OF EGDI
OVER THESE AREAS FOR TODAY...DECREASING ON THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER VENEZUELA...WITH ITS BASE FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHERN BOLIVIA. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WATER VAPOR FLUX
CONVERGENCE IN THE LOW LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE
BRAZILIAN STATE OF AMAZONAS CAN SEE LARGE AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS SEEING LARGER AMOUNTS.
TODAY...COASTAL AMAPA AND FRENCH GUIANA MAY OBSERVE AMOUNTS OF
15-30MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM. AREAS FROM ECUADOR...AND INTO
THE NORTHERN BRAZILIAN STATE OF PARA MAY OBSERVE GENERALIZED
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM. MOST OF COLOMBIA
AND WESTERN VENEZUELA MAY SEE 10-15MM.DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM.
EASTERN VENEZUELA AND THE GUIANAS ARE FORECAST TO OBSERVE
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. ON THURSDAY...A GENERAL
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE EXPECTED. FROM AMAPA...TO THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PARA...AND AMAZONAS...MAY OBSERVE 15-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-40MM. FROM SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND WESTERN
AMAZONAS...WEST INTO ECUADOR..AND WESTERN COLOMBIA...AMOUNTS FAVOR
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. THE GUIANAS AND EASTERN
VENEZUELA MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS ON 15-25MM.
THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA MAY SEE TOTALS OF 00-05MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 10MM. ON FRIDAY...EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...FROM
AMAPA...WEST INTO SOUTHEAST COLOMBIA...MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF
15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-40MM. THE WESTERN COAST OF
COLOMBIA...INTO ECUADOR...AND NORTHERN PERU...MAY SEE LOWER
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-30MM. AND AS STRONG
TRADE WINDS MOVE FROM THE GENERAL NORTHEAST DIRECTION FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...INLAND VENEZUELA...AND THE
GUIANAS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST AT 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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