296
FXCA20 KWBC 161908
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
207 PM EST THU FEB 16 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 16 FEB 2023 AT 1845 UTC: TODAY...A COLD
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL VERACRUZ... IS MOVING EAST. HOWEVER...A STATIONARY
FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. AS A SURFACE LOW
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE US...NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL JETS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ON
FRIDAY...THE FRONT ADVANCES FURTHER TO THE EAST...CROSSING INTO
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
INTO SOUTHERN VERACRUZ. HOWEVER, THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SIERRA
MADRE ORIENTAL WILL DISSIPATE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ITS PLACE. TO THE WEST...A
DISTURBANCE THAT WILL BE INCREASING THE PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
AT THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE AFFECTING CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA...AND NORTH INTO CENTRAL SONORA AND NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA
ON FRIDAY. MODELS ARE SHOWING VARYING AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND THEREFORE
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
ON SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD OF THE US. THERE IS LITTLE PRECIPITATION
IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM.
THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT A SMALL AREA OF THE STATE
OF SONORA COULD OBSERVE VERY LIGHT SNOW. TODAY...THE EASTERN
SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR...NEAR THE VERACRUZ AND OAXACA BORDER...MAY
OBSERVE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-30MM. NORTHERN
VERACRUZ MAY OBSERVE AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
15-20MM. ON FRIDAY...AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS IN
SOUTHERN VERACRUZ COULD FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM.
IN THE SURROUNDING AREAS OF SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND TABASCO...COULD
OBSERVE 10-15MMM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-30MM. IN CENTRAL GUATEMALA
AND BELIZE...AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM MAY BE
OBSERVED. ON SATURDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME RAIN TO
DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN VERACRUZ AND TABASCO...WITH TOTALS OF
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. GUATEMALA AND BELIZE WILL
OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 15MM.
THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MOVING THROUGH THE GREATER
ANTILLES FROM THE NORTH TODAY. BY FRIDAY...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMNANTS PUSH FURTHER SOUTH AND ARE FORECASTED OVER THE CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES. WITH THE STRONG TRADE WINDS FROM THE EAST AND LOW
LEVEL JETS...THE REMNANTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE CENTRAL LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN ON SATURDAY. TODAY...EXTREME
EASTERN CUBA...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES COULD OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM.
ON FRIDAY...THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES MAY OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. ON SATURDAY...THE LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL
AS PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC COULD SEE 00-05MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMA OF 10MM OF RAIN ON SATURDAY.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WIND
FLOW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS FROM
THE EAST. OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MAY BE THE MAIN CAUSE OF RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE COAST AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TODAY...SOUTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...EASTERN COSTA RICA...AND WESTERN PANAMA... MAY OBSERVE
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-30MM. EASTERN PANAMA IS FORECAST
FOR 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM.ON FRIDAY...EASTERN HONDURAS
AND EASTERN NICARAGUA COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 15MM. EASTERN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA MAY SEE
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
20-30MM. ON SATURDAY...MOST OF THE EASTERN OR CARIBBEAN SIDE OF
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL SEE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA UP TO 15MM OF
RAIN.
IN SOUTH AMERICA...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS ARE STILL SEEING STRONG
CONVECTION. WIND DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WATER VAPOR CONVERGENCE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREAS FROM NORTHERN
BRAZIL...INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. STRONG
TRADE WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE GUIANAS AND
NORTHERN VENEZUELA DECREASING AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. A GENERAL
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATIONS IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY...A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER VENEZUELA...WITH ITS BASE FURTHER SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN BOLIVIA. LARGER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...THE LARGEST AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST IN SOUTH VENEZUELA...SOUTHEAST
COLOMBIA...AND NORTHERN AMAZONAS AND PARA...FAVORING 15-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 25-50MM. HIGHER LOCALIZED MAXIMAS ARE EXPECTED.
OVER THE EJE CAFETERO...AND EASTWARD TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF
COLOMBIA...AMOUNTS FORECASTED FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
20-40MM. CENTRAL COLOMBIA...INTO ECUADOR...AND NORTHERN PERU COULD
SEE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. EASTERN
VENEZUELA...THE GUIANAS...AND INTO AMAPA...MAY OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. LOWER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA WITH 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM.
ON FRIDAY...ALONG NORTHERN BRAZIL...EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA...AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-40MM. EASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO ECUADOR...AND
NORTHERN PERU...MAY OBSERVE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
20-30MM. EASTERN VENEZUELA...NORTHERN GUYANA...AND SURINAME ARE
FORECAST 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. THE NORTHERN COAST
OF VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST TO SEE SIMILAR AMOUNTS. ON
SATURDAY...DEEPER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PERU AND WESTERN BRAZIL...CAUSING POSSIBLY 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM OF RAIN DUE TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA
COMBINING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. GUYANA...SURINAME...FRENCH
GUIANA...AND NORTHERN BRAZIL COULD SEE 15-20MM WITH MAXIMA OF
20-40MM OF RAIN...WHILE ELSEWHERE FROM NORTHERN PERU TO WESTERN
COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL BRAZIL AND EASTERN
VENEZUELA COULD SEE BETWEEN 05-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 30MM.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page