408
FXCA20 KWBC 171922
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
222 PM EST FRI FEB 17 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 17 FEB 2023 AT 1845 UTC: TODAY...A MOIST
PLUME IS MOVING OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...INTO CENTRAL SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA AND INTERACTING WITH THE COLD AIR IN THE
AREA...PRODUCING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. ON SATURDAY...THE AREA BEGINS
TO WARM UP AND THE CHANCE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION IS HIGH. ON
SUNDAY... PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
TODAY...CENTRAL SONORA COULD OBSERVE AMOUNTS OF 00-06CM IN
SNOWFALL...WHILE THE CENTRAL AREA OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR MAY SEE
00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. ON SATURDAY...CENTRAL SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA COULD SEE 05-10MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON
SUNDAY...THE AREAS IN SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA COULD OBSERVE 10-15MM
WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-30MM OF RAIN.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD...LOCATED OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND OVER THE TABASCO
AND VERACRUZ REGION...BY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN ITS PLACE. ON SATURDAY...THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AND INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND TABASCO AND VERACRUZ...WHERE IT REMAINS
STATIONARY. BY SUNDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST OVER THE
OPEN ATLANTIC...AND A TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON
SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE VERACRUZ AND
TABASCO...BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.
TODAY...LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED FOR THE BORDER REGION
BETWEEN VERACRUZ AND TABASCO WITH THIS NORTES EVENT FAVORING
15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 35-70MM. THE SURROUNDING AREAS OF
VERACRUZ AND TABASCO MAY SEE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM.
ON SATURDAY...AMOUNTS DECREASE TO 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
20-40MM IN THE VERACRUZ/TABASCO BORDER REGION. WHILE THE
SURROUNDING AREAS MAY SEE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM.
WHILE THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS MAY OBSERVE AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON SUNDAY...VERACRUZ...TABASCO...CENTRAL GUATEMALA
ARE FORECAST 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-30MM.
IN THE CARIBBEAN...REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS. ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...SEASONAL CONDITIONS TAKE OVER AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE WEST MOVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXTENDING TO THE
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND WILL BRING A TRADE WIND CAP
OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. SEASONAL AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. TODAY...THE CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES MAY OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM.
THE SAME AREA MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
15-20MM ON SATURDAY. WHILE THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND PUERTO
RICO MAY SEE 00-05MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON SUNDAY THE SAME
AREAS...IN ADDITION TO THE MAJORITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...MAY
OBSERVE 00-05MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 10MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...THE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE LOCAL WIND
FLOW DURING THE 3-DAY FORECAST PERIOD WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL JETS
FROM THE EAST. OROGRAPHIC LIFTING MAY BE THE MAIN CAUSE OF RAIN
SHOWERS OVER THE COAST AND SOME HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN
GENERAL...THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE EASTERN OR CARIBBEAN COAST
OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA ARE THE AREAS WITH THE MORE
RELIABLE OR CONSISTENT RAINFALL ON A DAILY BASIS. THE RAINFALL
EXPECTED EACH DAY WILL BE AROUND 05-10MM/DAY WITH DAILY MAXIMAS
RANGING BETWEEN 15-25MM. THAT SAID...ISOLATED AREAS COULD HAVE A
BIT MORE RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY BETWEEN ACROSS COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA...WHERE MAXIMAS OF 30MM COULD BE OBSERVED.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND NORTHERN PERU...AS
WELL AS WHERE THE NET IS LOCATED.. CURRENTLY...THE MJO IS IN A
FAVORABLE PHASE FOR HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. BY
SATURDAY... MID-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER VENEZUELA...WITH ITS
BASE FURTHER SOUTH INTO NORTHERN BOLIVIA. AREAS WITH THE LARGEST
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY BE FURTHER SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AREAS AROUND THE NET MAY STILL SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. TODAY...ALONG NORTHERN
BRAZIL...EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA...MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
20-40MM. EASTERN COLOMBIA...INTO ECUADOR...AND NORTHERN PERU...MAY
OBSERVE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. EASTERN
VENEZUELA...NORTHERN GUYANA...AND SURINAME ARE FORECAST
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. THE NORTHERN COAST OF
VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST TO SEE 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. ON
SATURDAY...DEEPER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PERU AND WESTERN BRAZIL...CAUSING POSSIBLY 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM OF RAIN DUE TO A MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA
COMBINING WITH THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. FRENCH GUIANA...AND
NORTHERN BRAZIL COULD SEE 15-20MM WITH MAXIMA OF 20-40MM OF
RAIN...WHILE ELSEWHERE FROM NORTHERN PERU TO WESTERN COLOMBIA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL BRAZIL AND EASTERN VENEZUELA COULD SEE
BETWEEN 05-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 30MM.
GUYANA...SURINAME...AND THE LLANOS REGION COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER MID
LEVEL WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE NET WILL CAUSE SOME AREAS
OF DEEP CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE AMAZONAS AND ACROSS THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PARA AND ACROSS AMPA. THESE AREAS COULD
OBSERVE 10-15MM OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMAS OF AS MUCH AS
25-50MM WITH THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
PARA AND EASTERN AMAZONAS COULD ALSO SEE GENERALIZED AREAS OF
10-15MM BUT MAXIMAS OF 20-30MM AS THE CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE QUITE AS DEEP IN THOSE AREAS...SO IS THE CASE FOR COLOMBIA
AND ECUADOR. A LARGE AREA EXTENDING FROM
VENEZUELA...GUYANA...SURINAME...FRENCH GUIANA...BRAZIL AND
NORTHERN PERU WILL HAVE SOME AREAS OF RAINFALL BUT IN THE ORDER OF
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-30MM.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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