851
FXCA20 KWBC 211819
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
119 PM EST TUE FEB 21 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 21 FEB 2023 AT 1830 UTC: TODAY...THE
MEXICAN STATES IN BAJA CALIFORNIA...AND EAST INTO THE SONORA AND
CHIHUAHUA...WILL SEE EFFECTS OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE TEMPERATURES AT THE LOWER
LEVELS MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SNOW FOR THE ENTIRE
AREA...HOWEVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SNOW. ON WEDNESDAY...THE
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO THE EAST OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN TEXAS...CROSSING INTO COAHUILA AND REACHING
SOUTHWEST...INTO SINALOA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY BE PASSING
THROUGH THE INTO NORTHERN SINALOA WITH CHANCES OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION. NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SEEING SNOW IN THE FORECAST. ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...A
COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES OF THE
US...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE PRESENT OVER TEXAS. A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT OVER MEXICO AND A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE WEST CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS
PATTERN WILL CAUSE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...SHIFTING
TO EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO THE
GULF OF MEXICO. TODAY...NORTHERN SONORA MAY SEE AMOUNTS FAVORING
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMS OF 15-30MM. SOUTHERN SONORA AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN SINALOA MAY SEE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM.
NORTH BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 10MM. ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...MOST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO
OBSERVE FAIR WEATHER WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING THE AREA...THE MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES LITTLE TO NO RAIN FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. HOWEVER...PATCHED OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL CAUSE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS...ACCUMULATING AROUND 00-05MM./DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 10MM.
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WHICH WILL CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM HISPANIOLA...EAST TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. BECAUSE THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE IN PATCHES...THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATION
FROM TODAY AND INTO FRIDAY IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY
MINIMAL...WITH TOTALS GENERALLY FROM 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA UP TO
10MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA...EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE DOMINATING WIND
FLOW...IN ADDITION TO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS EXTENDING INTO
NORTHERN COSTA RICA. TODAY...EASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA...PLUS NORTHEASTERN PANAMA...ARE FORECAST
TO OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA MAY SEE
00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM.ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THE
WIND PATTERN FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS WILL PERSIST. THEREFORE THE
RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED WILL ALSO BE ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDE OF
CENTRAL AMERICA AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFTING.
THE FORECAST RAINFALL IS 00-05MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 10MM FOR THE
EASTERN HALF OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...WHILE COSTA RICA AND
PANAMA MAY OBSERVE SLIGHTLY MORE RAINFALL...WITH ESTIMATED TOTALS
OF 05-10MM WITH MAXIMA OF 15MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA... NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND SECTIONS OF
NORTHERN COLOMBIA ARE FORECAST TO SEE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS....BUT THE NORTHEASTERN
COUNTRIES SUCH AS GUYANA...SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA WILL HAVE
ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH ITS BASE OVER SOUTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA ALLOWING FOR SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT OVER COLOMBIA FOR
TODAY. TO THE EAST...FRENCH GUIANA AND AMAPA ARE SEEING DIVERGENCE
ALOFT. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE MAKING THEIR WAY INTO
THE GUIANAS AND NORTHERN BRAZIL. ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROUGH ALOFT
MOVES WESTWARD INTO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND THE GUIANAS AND
NORTHERN BRAZIL CONTINUE TO SEE THE SAME CONDITIONS. FOR THE THREE
DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE ENHANCED GDI ALGORITHM SHOWS
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...DIVERGENCE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...RESULTING IN HIGH EGDI VALUES FOR THE GUIANAS AND
NORTHERN BRAZIL. TODAY...SURINAME...FRENCH GUIANA AND NORTHERN
BRAZIL MAY SEE ACCUMULATIONS FAVORING 25-50MM/DAY WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMAS OF 75-125MM. LOCALIZED AREAS MAY SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN BRAZIL ARE FORECAST TO SEE
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM. NORTHERN GUYANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VENEZUELA MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. TO THE EAST...CENTRAL AND WESTERN COLOMBIA ARE
FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 25-50MM. WHILE WESTERN
ECUADOR IS FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 35-70MM.
PRECIPITATION TOTALS MAY LOWER FOR WEDNESDAY...WHERE EASTERN AMAPA
MAY OBSERVE 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 25-50MM. COASTAL
GUYANA...SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA MAY SEE 10-15MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. SOUTHERN GUYANA...PARA...AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF AMAZONAS COULD SEE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. WESTERN
AMAZONAS...NORTHERN PERU...INTO ECUADOR MAY OBSERVE 10-15MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM. SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA...AND
NORTHERN ECUADOR...MAY SEE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM.
CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND PORTIONS SOUTHWEST OF THE MARACAIBO LAKE IN
VENEZUELA...COULD SEE LOWER AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
15-25MM. ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...WESTERN COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR MAY OBSERVE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...CAUSING
AREAS WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMAS OF
20-30MM. A LITTLE FURTHER EAST OVER NORTHERN PERU INTO WESTERN
BRAZIL...THE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MORE SPARSE
AND ALSO LESSER AMOUNTS. THOSE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO OBSERVE
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 15MM. THE SAME COULD BE SAID FOR
OTHER PARTS OF NORTHERN BRAZIL SUCH AS THE STATES OF PARA AND
AMAPA. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE CENTRAL AMAZONAS AREA...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE 10-15MM/DAY OF RAIN WITH MAXIMAS
OF 20-30MM. THE AREAS WITH THE CHANCE OF HIGHEST RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTRIES SUCH AS
GUYANA...SURINAME...AND FRENCH GUIANA. THE FORECAST RAINFALL DUE
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
25-50MM.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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