192
FXCA20 KWBC 221248
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
748 AM EST WED FEB 22 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM FEB
22/12UTC: TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTH AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS THE USVI CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME DAYS WILL HAVE MORE RAINFALL THAN
OTHERS. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE DAY WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...WHILE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WOULD HAVE THE DRIEST 24-HOUR
PERIOD...AND ALSO TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY DRY. THE TWIN
ALGORITHM INDICATES THAT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS THERE MAY BE A TRADE
WIND CAP SOMEWHERE INSIDE THE 900MB TO 750MB LAYER...WHICH
SUGGESTS A RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS IS ACCENTUATED BY A
PERSISTENT 500MB RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA THAT WILL INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOONS. SOME OF THE OTHER
PARAMETERS ARE ALSO INDICATIVE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITHOUT TOO MUCH IN THE FORM OF VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT...SO LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS FOR THE MOST PART. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WILL BE MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES UNDER 1.2 INCHES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SATURDAY WHERE
IT MAY BRIEFLY JUMP TO ABOUT 1.3 INCHES BEFORE PLUMMETING DOWN TO
UNDER AN INCH BY SUNDAY. THE GENERAL WIND PATTERN WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTERLY. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED DUE TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURES ACROSS THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
PR...MAINLY AROUND THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE...ARE FORECAST TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN EACH DAY. HOWEVER...DAILY TOTALS
OF UNDER 0.3 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THAT AREA...WITH LOWER
AMOUNTS OF RAIN ELSEWHERE. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SATURDAY...WHERE
UP TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
PR. THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS WEST TO SOUTHWEST PR WILL ALSO
BE LIMITED GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. ACROSS THE
USVI...THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS COULD BRING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH OVER A TENTH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE
ON SATURDAY FOR SAINT CROIX DUE TO A BAND OF MOISTURE AND SHOWERS
THAT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CARIBBEAN.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page