106
FXCA20 KWBC 221905
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
202 PM EST WED FEB 22 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 22 FEB 2023 AT 1845 UTC: ACROSS THE
TROPICAL REGION TODAY WE OBSERVE A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CAUSING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WHILE SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THERE IS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US FROM
TEXAS...NORTHEAST INTO LOUISIANA AND OTHER STATES OF NORTHEASTERN
USA. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN USA INTO
NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. BY SATURDAY MORNING...THIS FRONT WILL BECOME
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM TEXAS...ALL THE WAY EAST TO
GEORGIA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...MOVING SOUTH...WILL BECOME
REMNANTS BY SATURDAY MORNING...WHERE THE GREATER ANTILLES MAY SEE
RAINFALL DUE TO THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS. THERE
ARE MANY AREAS WITH LOW LEVEL JETS (LLJ)...SOUTHERLY JETS ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE EASTERN COAST OF THE
US...EASTERN LLJ ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN AND A NORTHEASTERLY
JET ACROSS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
THREE DAYS...THE PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY...AND BY SATURDAY
MORNING THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED WEST...CENTERING
INTO THE STATE OF FLORIDA AND CAUSING THE EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AND
LLJ ACROSS CUBA INTO THE YUCATAN AS WELL AS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. HOWEVER...THE WINDS
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PERSIST WITH A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT.
A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THIS STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP A
RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE CARIBBEAN
AND ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG
TRADE WIND INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA. THAT SAID...ACROSS NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA...ONLY PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WOULD BE
INFLUENCED BY THIS STABILITY...WITH ITS STRONGEST INFLUENCE ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WHEN IT APPEARS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH THE
LOWEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
GIVEN THE STABILITY PROVIDED BY THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...MOST
OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL
HAVE MODEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN...AND IN GENERAL DUE TO ONSHORE WIND
FLOW WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING. TODAY APPEARS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY
ACROSS THE GENERAL AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
AS WELL AS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA EXPECTED TO OBSERVE SOME
RAIN...IN THE ORDER OF 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 10MM. FROM
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING WE CAN ALSO EXPECT MODEST AMOUNTS
OF RAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AREAS RANGING
FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES AS
WELL AS THE CARIBBEAN SIDE OF CENTRAL AMERICA CAN EXPECT DAILY
RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM AROUND 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS UP TO
15MM. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED OVER COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...UP
TO 10MM ELSEWHERE.
THE SCENARIO LOOKS A BIT MORE COMPLEX FOR NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
THE CONVERGENCE OF THE NET AND HIGH MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL
CAUSE AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. IN GENERAL...GUYANA...SURINAME...FRENCH
GUIANA...NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL...ECUADOR AND SOUTHWESTERN
COLOMBIA...WILL BE THE AREAS WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN.
TODAY... THOSE AREAS MAY OBSERVE 10-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
25-50MM...THOUGH THE HIGHER END OF THAT RANGE IS LIMITED TO
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY...BUT EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY THEN...MOST OF ECUADOR AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA...AS WELL AS NORTHEASTERN SOUTH
AMERICA IS FORECAST TO 15-20MM WITH MAXIMAS OF 25-60MM. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS NORTHERN BRAZIL...PORTIONS OF COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA AND PERU
ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 20-30MM OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND
NORTHERN VENEZUELA ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE DRIER CONDITIONS THAN
AVERAGE WITH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEING THE DRIEST 24-HOUR
PERIOD...MAINLY DUE TO THE STABILITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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