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FXCA20 KWBC 231251
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
751 AM EST THU FEB 23 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM FEB
23/12UTC: TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTH AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS THE USVI ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. HOWEVER...SOME DAYS WILL HAVE MORE RAINFALL THAN
OTHERS. AT THIS TIME...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WOULD BE RELATIVELY RAINY...IN PARTICULAR TODAY INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ALREADY
AFFECTING PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI...AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL
DECREASE SLIGHTLY LATER ON FRIDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSES THE
AREA...BRINGING MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHEAST
CARIBBEAN. SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IS FORECAST TO
BE MAINLY DRY...AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
BEHIND THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE TWIN ALGORITHM INDICATES THAT
OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS THERE WILL BE A TRADE WIND CAP SOMEWHERE
INSIDE THE 900MB TO 750MB LAYER...WHICH WOULD PREVENT DEEP
CONVECTION TO OCCUR...SO MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
WOULD BE EXPECTED. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT
500MB RIDGE OVER THE LOCAL AREA AS WELL. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TODAY...BECOMING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...BUT INCREASING AND BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UP TO AROUND
1.6 INCHES. FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER ONE INCH...WHICH IS CLOSE TO TWO
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. THE GENERAL WIND PATTERN WILL BE
FROM THE NORTHEAST UNTIL MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...WINDS MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTERLY.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
PR...MAINLY AROUND THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE...ARE FORECAST TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN EACH DAY. UP TO 0.75 INCHES OF
RAIN CAN BE OBSERVED TODAY ACROSS THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN
RANGE...WITH UNDER 0.5 INCHES OF RAN ELSEWHERE...BUT LOCAL MAXIMA
OF AROUND 0.2 TO 0.5 INCHES OF RAIN CAN OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL PR
AND SOUTHWESTERN PR. RAINFALL TOTALS GO DOWN OVERALL ON
FRIDAY...UP TO 0.3 INCHES OF RAIN OR SO...THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
ON SATURDAY WITH TOTALS SIMILAR TO TODAY. BUT IT DRIES UP ON
SUNDAY ONWARD. ACROSS THE USVI...THE TRADE WIND SHOWERS COULD
BRING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF RAIN EACH DAY...ALTHOUGH OVER
A TENTH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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