760
FXCA20 KWBC 231914
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
214 PM EST THU FEB 23 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 23 FEB 2023 AT 1845 UTC: IN NORTHWESTERN
MEXICO A COLD SURFACE FRONT MOVING EAST WILL BE MOVING INTO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND INCREASE IN SNOW BY
SATURDAY. TO THE EAST...A SURFACE FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY BECOMING STATIONARY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS
SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE UNITED STATES. ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION...A
ROBUST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN
BASIN TODAY AND FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE
GREATER ANTILLES. REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE
RAINFALL FOR THIS AREA FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THE MID LEVELS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PRODUCING A TRADE
WIND CAP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TROPICAL REGION. FOR MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA REGIONS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...THE CONVERGENCE OF
THE NET AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE GUIANAS AND
NORTHEAST BRAZIL MAY SEE THE LARGEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A NOTABLE DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS THE MJO HAS BEEN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR
PRECIPITATION AND KELVIN WAVES HAVE BEEN CROSSING THROUGH NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA FAVORING PRECIPITATION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A
CONVERGENT MJO PHASE IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY ASSIST
WITH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION LOWERING.
TODAY...NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH
MAXIMAS OF 06-12CMâ€WHILE THE COASTAL PORTION TO THE WEST MAY SEE
AMOUNTS FROM 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM. AS THE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICAN REGIONS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE
ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMâ€PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...SOUTHERN
LESSER ANTILLESâ€EAST HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA MAY SEE 00-05MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. SOUTHEAST COSTA RICA INTO WESTERN PANAMA MAY
SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM. THE
COASTAL REGIONS OF THE GUIANAS ARE FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM. ALONG THE NET AND IN THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN
BRAZIL...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
20-30MM. EASTERN ECUADOR...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA
MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE
IN CENTRAL SURINAME INTO EAST PORTIONS OF VENEZUELAâ€PORTIONS OF
RORAIMA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...NORTHERN
PERUâ€LOWER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY SEE 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM. AS LOW LEVEL JETS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...BELIZE AND PORTIONS OF GUATEMALAâ€AND EASTERN HONDURAS
INTO PORTIONS OF PANAMA MAY SEE GENERAL AMOUNTS FROM 00-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 10-25MM. PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLESâ€ARE
FORECAST TO SEE 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. THE
GUIANAS...AMAPA AND PARA MAY SEE 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
30-60MM. WESTERN ECUADOR MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN
BRAZIL...COLOMBIA...WESTERN ECUADORâ€AND NORTHERN PERU...MAY
GENERALLY SEE AMOUNTS OF 05-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM. ON
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNINGâ€THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA MAY OBSERVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOWFALL MAXIMAS OF
06-12CM POSSIBLE WITH SOME RAIN NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
00-05MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 10MM. THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HAVE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF RAINFALL TO THE
PREVIOUS DAYS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A STRONG TRADE
WIND CAP WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE
AREAS...LEAVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY AROUND 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS UP TO 15MM ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...BUT UP TO 10MM
ONLY FOR THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA MAY OBSERVE
LESS RAIN THAN ON THE PREVIOUS DAYS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT THE WESTERN SECTION OF ECUADOR COULD OBSERVE
THUNDERSTORMS...CAUSING AROUND 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
20-35MMâ€WHILE WESTERN COLOMBIA WOULD OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY OF RAIN
WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN BRAZIL AS
WELL AS SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA COULD HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM...WHICH COULD BE OBSERVED WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED.
ACOSTA\ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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