717  
FXCA20 KWBC 231920  
PMDCA  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
220 PM EST THU FEB 23 2023  
 
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 23 FEB 2023 AT 1845 UTC: IN NORTHWESTERN  
MEXICO A COLD SURFACE FRONT MOVING EAST WILL BE MOVING INTO THE  
AREA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING STRONG WINDS AND INCREASE IN SNOW BY  
SATURDAY. TO THE EAST...A SURFACE FRONT IS PUSHING ACROSS THE  
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY BECOMING STATIONARY ON FRIDAY AND  
SATURDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS  
SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE UNITED STATES. ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION...A  
ROBUST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN  
BASIN TODAY AND FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING SURFACE COLD  
FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE  
GREATER ANTILLES. REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PRODUCE  
RAINFALL FOR THIS AREA FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO THE WEEKEND. AT  
THE MID LEVELS...A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE PRODUCING A TRADE  
WIND CAP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE TROPICAL REGION. FOR MOST OF THE  
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA REGIONS...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL  
NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. IN NORTH SOUTH AMERICA...THE CONVERGENCE OF  
THE NET AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL PRODUCE AREAS OF SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE GUIANAS AND  
NORTHEAST BRAZIL MAY SEE THE LARGEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION  
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS A NOTABLE DECREASE IN  
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. FOR THE PAST  
COUPLE OF WEEKS THE MJO HAS BEEN IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR  
PRECIPITATION AND KELVIN WAVES HAVE BEEN CROSSING THROUGH NORTHERN  
SOUTH AMERICA FAVORING PRECIPITATION. OVER THE WEEKEND...A  
CONVERGENT MJO PHASE IS FORECAST OVER THE AREA WHICH MAY ASSIST  
WITH AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION LOWERING.  
 
TODAY...NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY SEE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITH  
MAXIMAS OF 06-12CM...WHILE THE COASTAL PORTION TO THE WEST MAY SEE  
AMOUNTS FROM 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM. AS THE CARIBBEAN  
AND CENTRAL AMERICAN REGIONS CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE  
ROBUST HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM...PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...SOUTHERN  
LESSER ANTILLES...EAST HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA MAY SEE 00-05MM/DAY  
WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. SOUTHEAST COSTA RICA INTO WESTERN PANAMA MAY  
SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM. THE  
COASTAL REGIONS OF THE GUIANAS ARE FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH  
MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM. ALONG THE NET AND IN THE MAJORITY OF NORTHERN  
BRAZIL...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF  
20-30MM. EASTERN ECUADOR...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA  
MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. ELSEWHERE  
IN CENTRAL SURINAME INTO EAST PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA...PORTIONS OF  
RORAIMA...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...NORTHERN  
PERU...LOWER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF  
15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY SEE 05-10MM/DAY  
WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM. AS LOW LEVEL JETS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL  
AMERICA...BELIZE AND PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN HONDURAS  
INTO PORTIONS OF PANAMA MAY SEE GENERAL AMOUNTS FROM 00-10MM/DAY  
WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 10-25MM. PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN  
REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...ARE  
FORECAST TO SEE 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. THE  
GUIANAS...AMAPA AND PARA MAY SEE 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF  
30-60MM. WESTERN ECUADOR MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH  
MAXIMAS OF 25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHERN  
BRAZIL...COLOMBIA...WESTERN ECUADOR...AND NORTHERN PERU...MAY  
GENERALLY SEE AMOUNTS OF 05-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM. ON  
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA  
CALIFORNIA MAY OBSERVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOWFALL MAXIMAS OF  
06-12CM POSSIBLE WITH SOME RAIN NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF  
00-05MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 10MM. THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND  
CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HAVE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF RAINFALL TO THE  
PREVIOUS DAYS. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WITH A STRONG TRADE  
WIND CAP WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TRADE WIND SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE  
AREAS...LEAVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY AROUND 05-10MM/DAY WITH  
MAXIMAS UP TO 15MM ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...BUT UP TO 10MM  
ONLY FOR THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD  
SIDE OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA MAY OBSERVE  
LESS RAIN THAN ON THE PREVIOUS DAYS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE IS  
SUGGESTING THAT THE WESTERN SECTION OF ECUADOR COULD OBSERVE  
THUNDERSTORMS...CAUSING AROUND 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF  
20-35MM...WHILE WESTERN COLOMBIA WOULD OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY OF RAIN  
WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN BRAZIL AS  
WELL AS SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA COULD HAVE SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS. THE RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH  
MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM...WHICH COULD BE OBSERVED WITH THE  
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE EXPECTED.  
 
ACOSTA\ALAMO...WPC (USA)  

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page