052
FXCA20 KWBC 241242
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
742 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM FEB
24/12UTC: TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTH AND
EASTERN SECTIONS OF PR AS WELL AS THE USVI ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 5 DAYS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT TODAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY WOULD HAVE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED BRIEF SHOWERS...BUT
ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE NEAR 0.25 INCHES OR LESS. FOR SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY... AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND BRING
DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE LOCAL AREA. NOT ONLY WILL THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER INCREASE...BUT ALSO OTHER PARAMETERS SUCH AS THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IN THE MID LEVELS. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME...SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE THE 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN...THOUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN WILL BE
ON SATURDAY MORNING. LITTLE RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH AND
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND IT. SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING IS FORECAST TO BE MAINLY DRY...AS THE DRY AIR BEHIND THE
OLD BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. THE TWIN
ALGORITHM CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS THERE
WILL BE A TRADE WIND CAP SOMEWHERE INSIDE THE 900MB TO 750MB
LAYER...WHICH WOULD PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION TO OCCUR. THIS WOULD
ALLOW FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
SUGGESTS A PERSISTENT 500MB HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE GENERAL
WIND PATTERN WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST UNTIL MONDAY. BY LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WINDS MAY SHIFT TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION.
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS...SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
PR...MAINLY AROUND THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE...ARE FORECAST TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN EACH DAY. AROUND 0.25 INCHES ARE
FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE LUQUILLO MOUNTAIN RANGE...WITH LOWER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. RAINFALL TOTALS AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY...WITH UP TO 0.40 INCHES OR SO...THEN
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR SUNDAY.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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