455
FXCA20 KWBC 241818
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
117 PM EST FRI FEB 24 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 24 FEB 2023 AT 1845 UTC: TO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST REGION...EXTREME NORTH BAJA
CALIFORNIA WILL SEE A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING. BY SUNDAY...THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER INTO WEST SONORA AND CENTRAL BAJA
CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY HAS THE HIGHEST POSSIBILITY OF SNOW IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. TO THE EAST...
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM IS PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
TODAY AND MOVING NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY...BRINGING LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST REGION. OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA...A ROBUST MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THE TWIN ALGORITHM IS SHOWING A TRADE WIND
CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL VARY
BETWEEN THE 950 TO 700HPA LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE REGION...WHICH MAY
PREVENT DEEP CONVECTION FROM FORMING. FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY OVER
THE GREATER ANTILLES MOVING SOUTH AND WILL BRING POCKETS OF
MOISTURE TO THE AREA. PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANT. THE CARIBBEAN BASIN CONTINUES TO SEE LOW-LEVEL JETS
(LLJ) GENERALLY FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION...PRODUCING ONSHORE
WIND FLOW WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IN COASTAL AREAS OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS. IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
INTERACTION WITH THE NET IS PRODUCING CONVECTION AND LARGE AMOUNTS
OF RAINFALL IN NORTHERN BRAZIL AND PORTIONS OF THE GUIANAS TODAY.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AS THE LARGER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MOVE SOUTHWARD. BY THE END
OF THIS WEEKEND...A KELVIN WAVE HAS MOVED EAST AWAY FROM SOUTH
AMERICA AND A CONVERGENT PHASE OF THE MJO IS EXPECTED OVER THE
MAJORITY OF FORECAST REGION.
FOR TODAY...EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST FOR
00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. IN THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES...IN ADDITION TO BELIZE AND CENTRAL
GUATEMALA...EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA...ARE FORECAST TO SEE
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMAS OF 10MM/DAY. COASTAL COSTA RICA AND
NORTHWEST PANAMA MAY SEE AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. LARGER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE GUIANAS...SOUTH INTO AMAPA...PARA...AND CENTRAL
AMAZONAS...WITH AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM.
WESTERN ECUADOR MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
25-50MM. SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...RORAIMA...AND NORTHERN AMAZONAS MAY
SEE LOWER AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-30MM.
ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...AND NORTHERN PERU...AMOUNTS MAY
FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM TODAY AND SATURDAY.
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN
SOUTH AMERICA. ON SATURDAY...THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY SEE SNOWFALL MAXIMAS OF 10-20CM...WHILE TO THE
WEST...THE COASTAL REGION MAY SEE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
20-30MM. SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY SEE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 15MM. THE CARIBBEAN AND THE COASTAL REGIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
MAY SEE GENERALIZED AMOUNTS OF 00-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
10-15MM...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHWESTERN PANAMA...FORECAST FOR
10-15MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED FOR THE GUIANAS AND INTO NORTHERN BRAZIL...AND EASTERN
ECUADOR...WITH A GENERALIZED AMOUNT OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMAS OF
20-45MM. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA MAY OBSERVE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. SNOWFALL MAXIMAS OF
UP TO 05CM ARE POSSIBLE WITH SOME RAIN NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN COAST
OF 00-05MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 10MM. THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY MORNING...THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WILL HAVE A SIMILAR PATTERN OF RAINFALL TO THE PREVIOUS
DAYS...EXCEPT THAT PERHAPS WITH A LITTLE LESS RAINFALL ACROSS
NICARAGUA AND THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH A STRONG TRADE WIND CAP WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TRADE WIND
SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE AREAS...LEAVING RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAINLY
AROUND 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 15-25MM ACROSS COSTA RICA
AND PANAMA...BUT UP TO 10MM ONLY FOR PUERTO RICO AND LESSER
ANTILLES. SOME AREAS OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA MAY OBSERVE LESS
RAIN THAN ON THE PREVIOUS DAYS...BUT MORE IN OTHERS. THE LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE WESTERN SECTION OF ECUADOR AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL PERU COULD OBSERVE THUNDERSTORMS...CAUSING
AROUND 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM...WHILE WESTERN
COLOMBIA WOULD OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY OF RAIN WITH MAXIMAS OF
15-25MM. A PORTION OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AS WELL AS SURINAME AND
FRENCH GUIANA COULD HAVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH RAINFALL
ESTIMATES OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. HOWEVER...MOST
OF THE AMAZONAS AND WESTERN PARA ARE ESTIMATED TO OBSERVE
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM.
ACOSTA\ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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