463
FXCA20 KWBC 271915
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 PM EST MON FEB 27 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 27 FEB 2023 AT 1845 UTC: IN NORTHERN
MEXICO...SURFACE COLD FRONTS WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN
MEXICAN STATES AND SOUTHERN USA FROM THE WEST FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. MOST OF THE SURFACE FRONTS WILL NOT PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION. ON WEDNESDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING FROM
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTH INTO NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SONORA
WILL PRODUCE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY SEE SNOWFALL MAXIMAS OF
10-16CM. THE WESTERN COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. TO THE EAST...NORTHERN SONORA
MAY SEE MIXED PRECIPITATION. AT THIS TIME THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SONORA. THEY MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...A PROMINENT MID LEVEL
RIDGE IS PRODUCING SEASONAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA.
THE TRADE WIND CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS PRESENT
FOR THE 3 DAYS DECREASING THE CHANCE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. TRADE
WIND SPEEDS DECREASE FOR TODAY AND TUESDAY...WHILE INCREASING ON
WEDNESDAY WHEN LOW LEVEL JETS ARE PRESENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN
AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
EAST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. TODAY IS THE DAY WITH THE MOST
PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA...THE COASTAL CARIBBEAN SHORES OF COSTA
RICA AND NORTHERN PANAMA ARE FORECAST FOR 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 15MM. BELIZE...EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA MAY SEE AMOUNTS
OF 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. ON TUESDAY...SOUTHEASTERN
COSTA RICA MAY AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF PANAMA IS FORECAST FOR
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE INCREASING
IN THE NEXT 3 DAYS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGHER
THAN 50MM FOR A LARGE AREA AROUND THE NET FOR TODAY AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ALSO OVER 70% FOR THE VAST MAJORITY
OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND WILL STAY HIGH FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY A VARIETY OF AREAS OF DIVERGENCE
ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE FUELING
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME
AREAS SEEING MORE THAN THE FORECAST AMOUNTS. TODAY...MAY BE THE
DAY WITH THE LEAST AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...ECUADOR...NORTHERN PERU...AND NORTHWEST
BRAZIL MAY SEE THE LARGEST AMOUNTS FAVORING 10-15MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM. WHILE THE GUIANAS AND NORTHEAST BRAZIL MAT SEE
AMOUNTS IF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. CENTRAL COLOMBIA
IS FORECAST FOR LOWER AMOUNTS FAVORING 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
15-25MM. ON TUESDAY...HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA.
COLOMBIA...ECUADOR...NORTHERN PERU...RORAIMA...AND NORTHERN PARA
ARE FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM. SOME
LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF AMAZONAS...A WELL AS THE COASTAL SHORES OF
THE GUIANAS AND AMAPA MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE GUIANAS AND AMAPA...LOWER AMOUNTS OF
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM ARE FORECAST. ON
WEDNESDAY...NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GUIANAS ARE FORECAST TO SEE
15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 35-70MM. COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR...AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF PERU MAY SEE 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
30-60MM. ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN
BRAZIL...THEY GENERALLY MAY SEE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
20-45MM. NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST TO SEE
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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