717
FXCA20 KWBC 281846
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
146 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 28 FEB 2023 AT 1845 UTC: TODAY...NORTHERN
MEXICO WILL NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. BY WEDNESDAY...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OVER SONORA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA
FROM THE NORTH...BRINGING COLD AIR AND CHANCE OF SNOW FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. ON THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OVER
TEXAS...AND INTO COAHUILA...THE NORTHERN DURANGO/CHIHUAHUA
REGION...AND INTO NORTHERN SINALOA. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER
SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA WITH MEASURABLE AMOUNTS. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA MAY SEE
SNOWFALL MAXIMAS OF 12-18 CM.THE WESTERN SHORE OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST FOR 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM.
NORTHERN SONORA IS FORECAST FOR 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM.
ON THURSDAY...NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA WILL HAVE COLD AIR FAVOR 04-08 CM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN...DRY AIR AND A PROMINENT MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...VARIOUS PORTIONS IN THE REGION WILL SEE A TRADE WIND CAP
IN THE 950 TO 700 HPA LEVELS WHICH WILL INTERFERE WITH DEVELOPING
DEEP CONVECTION AND LIMITING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
THIS PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE MAJORITY
OF THE REGION WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION AND SEASONAL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. FOR TODAY...EASTERN COSTA RICA AND
NORTHWESTERN PANAMA ARE FORECAST TO 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
10MM. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SAME AREA IN ADDITION TO THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTIONS OF PANAMA ARE FORECAST FOR 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
15MM. BY THURSDAY...NORTHWESTERN PANAMA IS FORECAST FOR
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM.
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE AREAS WHERE THE NET IS LOCATED.
THESE AREAS ARE SEEING HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER 70% AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...OUR ENHANCED GDI ALGORITHM SHOWS VARIOUS AREAS WHERE
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
FORECAST TO FAVOR DEEP CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHERN
VENEZUELA...NORTHERN BRAZIL...SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...ECUADOR AND
NORTHERN PERU. LOCALIZED AREAS OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TODAY...SOUTH
VENEZUELA...RORAIMA...NORTHERN PARA...ECUADOR AND NORTHERN PERU
ARE FORECAST TO SEE 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM. SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...AMAZONAS...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GUIANAS ARE
FORECAST 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM. CENTRAL COLOMBIA MAY
SEE AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. ON
WEDNESDAY...HIGHER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THE
GUIANAS...EASTERN VENEZUELA...AND RORAIMA...FAVORING 15-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 35-70MM. CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND INTO ECUADOR AND
NORTHERN PERU ARE FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
30-60MM. ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN BRAZIL
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 20-45MMM. COASTAL PORTIONS OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA MAY SEE
LOWER AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM. OUR EGDI
ALGORITHM IS SHOWING SOME LOWER VALUES OF EGDI FOR THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF TROPICAL SOUTH AMERICA. THE
GUIANAS...AMAPA...PORTIONS OF PARA...RORAIMA...SOUTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA...AND PORTIONS OF AMAZONAS MAT SEE A DECREASED AMOUNT OF
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN
VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...NORTHERN PERU...AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST FOR
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. HOWEVER...WESTERN COLOMBIA
AND ECUADOR MAY STILL SEE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION
WHICH ARE FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM. THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA IS FAVORING PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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