385
FXCA20 KWBC 011826
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
125 PM EST WED MAR 01 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 01 MAR 2023 AT 1845 UTC: A SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BE MOVING OVER SONORA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM THE
NORTH...BRINGING COLD AIR AND CHANCE OF SNOW FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
IN BAJA CALIFORNIA. ANOTHER SURFACE COLD FRONT IS MOVING EAST OVER
TEXAS...HOWEVER...THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ON
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST OVER TEXAS...AND
INTO COAHUILA...THE NORTHERN DURANGO/CHIHUAHUA REGION...AND INTO
NORTHERN SINALOA. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN
SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER. AND FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST
OVER GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND BECOMES STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL VERACRUZ...WHERE IT
WILL DISSIPATE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN ITS PLACE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL.
TODAY...NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL SEE COLD AIR FRONT THE
SURFACE FRONT AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS MAY SEE MEASURABLE AMOUNTS OF
SNOW. SNOWFALL MAXIMAS OF 16-22 CM ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA. THE WESTERN SHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO
SEE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. OVER NORTHERN
SONORA...PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM
ARE EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ON THURSDAY...NORTHERN
CHIHUAHUA AND SONORA ARE FORECAST TO SEE A SNOWFALL MAXIMA OF
04-10 CM. NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
NORTHERN MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN REGION OF
MEXICO IS EXPERIENCING THE EFFECTS OF DRY AIR AND A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
CONVECTION. NO SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN...DRY AIR AND A PROMINENT MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...VARIOUS PORTIONS IN THE REGION WILL SEE A TRADE WIND CAP
IN THE 950 TO 700 HPA LEVELS WHICH WILL INTERFERE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND LIMITING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION AND SEASONAL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. FOR TODAY...THE
CARIBBEAN SHORES OF COSTA RICA. AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST TO SEE
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM. THE SAME AREA IS FORECAST TO
SEE 05-10MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF 15MM ON THURSDAY AND 00-05MM/DAY
WITH A MAXIMA OF 10MM ON FRIDAY. THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES IS
FORECAST FOR 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM ON FRIDAY.
FOR NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...THE AREA IS
SEEING WIND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WITH A CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE AROUND
THE AREA WHERE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) IS LOCATED OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. THROUGHOUT THE REGION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE AREAS ARE SEEING
HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER 70% AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OVER
50MM... FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA...DRIER AIR
AND HIGH WINDS ARE NOT FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFALL AND
LOWER AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TODAY...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...PORTIONS OF EASTERN
COLOMBIA...NORTHERN RORAIMA AND AMAZONAS...ARE FORECAST TO SEE
15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 35-70MM. EASTERN FRENCH GUIANA AND
AMAPA...MAY SEE 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM...WHILE
WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 25-50MM. SURINAME AND GUYANA...INTO NORTHERN
PARA...AS WELL AS EASTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR...INTO NORTHERN
PERU ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 10-15MM/DAT WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM.
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IN THE MARACAIBO REGION IN
VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST TO SEE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM.
LOWER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AS WESTERN ECUADOR MAY
FAVOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 25-50MM. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE GUIANAS AND NORTHERN BRAZIL ARE FORECAST FOR 10-15MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM. COLOMBIA INTO EASTERN ECUADOR...AND NORTHERN
PERU MAY SEE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GUIANAS MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. WESTERN AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA MAY SEE
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM. ON FRIDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN
SIMILAR AND SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...EASTERN ECUADOR AND NORTHERN PERU
ARE FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 25-50MM. NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL ARE SEE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
20-45MM...WHILE COLOMBIA...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...NORTHERN
AMAZONAS...MAY SEE LOWER AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
20-25MM. MOST OF THE GUIANAS...MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SHORE OF VENEZUELA IS
FORECAST FOR 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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