500
FXCA20 KWBC 021801
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
101 PM EST THU MAR 02 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 02 MAR 2023 AT 1845 UTC: TODAY...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES TO THE EAST OVER TEXAS...AND INTO
COAHUILA...THE NORTHERN DURANGO/CHIHUAHUA REGION...AND INTO
NORTHERN SINALOA. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN
SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OVER GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO...AND BECOMES STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL VERACRUZ...WHERE
IT WILL DISSIPATE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ITS PLACE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL ON
SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF BERMUDA...INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND
BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL VERACRUZ.
MINIMAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM TROUGHS THAT MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TODAY...SNOWFALL MAXIMAS
FOR THE NORTHERN SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BETWEEN 04-10CM. LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR THESE
REGIONS FOR FRIDAY. ON SATURDAY...THE NORTHEAST BORDER OF OAXACA
AND VERACRUZ COULD SEE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM...WHILE TO
THE EAST...EASTERN CHIAPAS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
GUATEMALA ARE FORECAST FOR 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMS OF 10MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN...DRY AIR AND A PROMINENT MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE AREA. ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE...VARIOUS PORTIONS IN THE REGION WILL SEE A TRADE WIND CAP
IN THE 950 TO 700 HPA LEVELS WHICH WILL INTERFERE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND LIMITING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. THIS PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION WILL SEE LITTLE TO NO
PRECIPITATION AND SEASONAL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. TODAY...THE
CARIBBEAN COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST TO SEE
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15MM. FOR FRIDAY...THE SAME AREA MAY
SEE 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM...IN ADDITION...THE CENTRAL
LESSER ANTILLES ARE FORECAST FOR THE SAME AMOUNT OF 00-05MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. EASTERN COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA MAY
SEE AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY...WHERE THEY ARE
FORECAST TO SEE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-20MM.
FOR NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE AREA IS SEEING WIND DIVERGENCE
ALOFT WITH A CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE AROUND THE AREAS WHERE THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH AMERICA.
THROUGHOUT THE REGION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS SEE
HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE AREAS ARE SEEING HUMIDITY LEVELS OVER 70%
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS OVER 50MM... FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. FOR THE SOUTHERN COLOMBIA... EASTERN ECUADOR...EAST INTO
NORTHERN PERU AND WESTERN AMAZONAS...RAINFALL AMOUNTS SEEM TO BE
INCREASING OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. USING OUR ENHANCED GDI
FORECASTING TOOL...THE AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE FOUND OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...SPECIALLY FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA...DRIER AIR AND HIGH
WINDS ARE NOT FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFALL AND LOWER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TODAY...SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND MOST OF NORTHERN BRAZIL IS FORECAST
TO SEE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM.SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...ECUADOR AND NORTHERN PERU MAY SEE AMOUNTS OF
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. THE NORTH AND WESTERN
VENEZUELA...THE GUIANAS AND AMAPA ARE FORECAST TO SEE GENERAL
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...THERE
IS INCREASE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...EASTERN
ECUADOR...AND PERU WITH A FORECAST OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
25-50MM. WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR...IN ADDITION TO AMAPA ARE
FORECAST TO SEE 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM. ELSEWHERE IN
VENEZUELA...COLOMBIA...AND INTO NORTHERN BRAZIL...PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST TO 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. THE GUIANAS MAY
SEE AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. NORTHERN
VENEZUELA IS FORECAST FOR LOWER AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH A
MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON SATURDAY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER FOR THE WESTERN PORTION OF NORTH SOUTH AMERICA. SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA...PORTIONS OF ECUADOR...PERU...AND AMAZONAS ARE FORECAST
TO SEE AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 35-70MM. WESTERN
COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR...AND WESTERN AMAPA...ARE FORECAST TO SEE
10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM. WESTERN VENEZUELA...NORTHERN
GUYANA...AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF RORAIMA ARE FORECAST TO SEE
LOWER AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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