527
FXCA20 KWBC 031856
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
156 PM EST FRI MAR 03 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 03 MAR 2023 AT 1845 UTC: A SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHES EAST OVER GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND BECOMES STATIONARY OVER CENTRAL
VERACRUZ...WHERE IT WILL DISSIPATE TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ITS PLACE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF BERMUDA...INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA...AND BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO
CENTRAL VERACRUZ BY FRIDAY EVENING. ON SATURDAY...THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...NORTH OF
BERMUDA...INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...AND BECOMES STATIONARY FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO INTO CENTRAL VERACRUZ. BY SUNDAY EVENING THE FRONT
PUSHES SOUTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS...INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. MINIMAL
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT AND FROM TROUGHS THAT
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ON SATURDAY...EASTERN
CHIAPAS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GUATEMALA ARE FORECAST FOR
00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMS OF 10MM. THE SAME AREA MAY SEE 05-10MM/DAY
WITH A MAXIMA OF 15MM ON SUNDAY. THE NORTH BAHAMAS COULD ALSO SEE
SOME PRECIPITATION THAT DAY OF ABOUT 00-05MM/DAY WITH A MAXIMA OF
10MM.
IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN...DRY AIR AND A PROMINENT MID
LEVEL RIDGE IS DOMINATING THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE...VARIOUS PORTIONS IN THE REGION WILL
SEE A TRADE WIND CAP IN THE 950 TO 700 HPA LEVELS WHICH WILL
INTERFERE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION AND LIMITING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION. BY EARLY MONDAY...THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO DISSIPATE AND THE TRADE WIND CAP
INVERSION BEGINS TO BREAK IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.
TODAY...EASTERN COSTA RICA AND NORTHWESTERN PANAMA...IN ADDITION
TO THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES ARE FORECAST FOR THE SAME AMOUNT OF
00-05MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 10MM. ON SATURDAY...THE SAME AREAS IN
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST TO SEE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 15-20MM. SOUTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAY SEE 00-05MM/DAY
WITH A MAXIMA OF 10MM. ON SUNDAY...THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA ARE FORECAST FOR 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF
15-25MM.
FOR NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE AREA IS SEEING WIND DIVERGENCE AT
THE HIGHER LEVELS FROM A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALOFT THAT IS
MEANDERING OVER BOLIVIA FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS...IN ADDITION TO
CONVERGENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AROUND THE AREAS
WHERE THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) IS LOCATED OVER SOUTH
AMERICA. THROUGHOUT THE REGION...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL WHERE SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS SEE HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA...DRIER AIR AND
HIGH WINDS ARE NOT FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF RAINFALL AND LOWER
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD.
TODAY...SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...EASTERN ECUADOR...AND PERU ARE
FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 25-50MM. WESTERN COLOMBIA
AND ECUADOR ARE FORECAST FOR 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM.
ELSEWHERE IN COLOMBIA...VENEZUELA...AND NORTHERN
BRAZIL...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE FORECAST FOR 10-15MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND THE GUIANAS ARE
FORECAST TO RECEIVE GENERALLY 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM.
ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE. OUR
ENHANCED GDI ALGORITHM IS INDICATING HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. IN PARTICULAR...FROM SOUTHERN
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...INTO CENTRAL AMAZONAS HAVE AN ELEVATED
EGDI INDICATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...WESTERN ECUADOR...PERU AND CENTRAL AMAZONAS
ARE FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 40-80MM. EASTERN
COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 30-60MM. ELSEWHERE...IN WESTERN COLOMBIA AND
ECUADOR...PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST FOR 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS
OF 20-45MM. EASTERN NORTH BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA ARE FORECAST TO
SEE LOWER AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. NORTHERN
COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA...AS WELL AS SURINAME...GUYANA..AND EASTERN
VENEZUELA ARE FORECAST FOR 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM.
FOR SUNDAY...LARGE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED FOR
SIMILAR AREAS. SOUTHERN COLOMBIA...AND PERU AND WESTERN ECUADOR
ARE FORECAST FOR 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 35-70MM. WHILE
WESTERN COLOMBIA AND ECUADOR ARE FORECAST FOR 10-15MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM. SOUTHERN VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN BRAZIL MAY
SEE AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...IN ADDITION TO THE GUIANAS AND AMAPA ARE FORECAST FOR
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM.
ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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