897  
FXCA20 KWBC 141624  
PMDCA  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1224 PM EDT TUE MAR 14 2023  
 
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 14 MAR 2023 AT 16 UTC: UNDER WET MJO  
CONDITIONS STILL...EXPECT ABOVE-AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IN SOME  
LOCATIONS WHERE WEATHER SYSTEMS FAVOR RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT.  
 
NORTH IN THE DOMAIN...TWO SURFACE FRONTS ARE PROPAGATING SOUTHWARD  
RAPIDLY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IS THE SOUTHERN FRONT...WHICH ON  
TUESDAY MORNING EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS INTO THE  
FLORIDA STRAIT AND THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BY TUESDAY  
EVENING...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL  
BAHAMAS...NORTHERN CUBA...CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHERN  
TAMAULIPAS. A SURGE IN THE NORTHERLIES WILL PUSH THIS FRONT  
SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY AFTERWARDS. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING THE FRONT IS  
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS/TURKS AND CAICOS...CENTRAL  
CUBA...INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST YUCATAN PENINSULA. BY THURSDAY  
EVENING EXPECT THE FRONT ACROSS PUERTO RICO...JUST SOUTH OF  
HISPANIOLA...INTO A WEAKENING BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND  
INTO CENTRAL QUINTANA ROO IN MEXICO. THE NORTHERN FRONT IS  
EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND  
THE TURKS AND CAICOS/SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS  
LATTER SYSTEM WILL HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON PRECIPITATION AS IT  
PROPAGATES IN A DRIER ENVIRONMENT. A SHORT-LIVED PREFRONTAL SHEAR  
LINE IS EXPECTED WITH THE SOUTHERN FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN IT IS  
FORECAST TO EXTEND INTO NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...DISSIPATING ON  
THURSDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF  
20-30MM WITH THE RISK OF SQUALLY CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL AND  
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IN NORTHERN CUBA. IN WESTERN CUBA EXPECT  
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM...AND IN TAMAULIPAS/NUEVO LEON  
EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. IN INTERACTION WITH AN  
UPPER TROUGH...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL FLARE UP IN THE NORTHERN  
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL...WHERE  
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM WITH A RISK FOR SQUALLY  
CONVECTION AS WELL. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A CONTINUED RISK FOR  
SQUALLY CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...WHERE EXPECT  
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. LARGER VALUES OF MOISTURE  
CONVERGENCE WILL FAVOR LARGER AMOUNTS IN CUBA AND INAGUA...WHERE  
EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. IN THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN  
PENINSULA...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM. ON  
THURSDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN  
ELEVATED TERRAIN IN HISPANIOLA...WHERE EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND  
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ELSEWHERE IN THE ISLAND EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND  
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA AND IN  
EASTERN PUERTO RICO/WESTERN VI. IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS/SOUTHEAST  
BAHAMAS AND EASTERN CUBA EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.  
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND  
BELIZE.  
 
ANOTHER SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE INTO NORTHERN BAJA  
CALIFORNIA ON WEDNESDAY...AND DISSIPATE ON THURSDAY ACROSS CENTRAL  
SONORA/CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL START TO HIGHLIGHT  
PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY...WHEN EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF  
15-20MM IN NORTHWEST BAJA CALIFORNIA. EXPECT A PEAK ON  
WEDNESDAY...WHEN AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 10-15MM/DAY AND  
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM. ON THURSDAY...THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION IS  
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHLANDS OF SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA WHERE EXPECT  
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.  
 
UNUSUALLY ACTIVE CONVECTION AND WETTER-THAN-NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE  
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MEXICO...AND  
CENTRAL AMERICA. ASIDE FROM THE MJO HIGHLIGHTING VENTILATION...A  
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH PATTERN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO  
CONTINUES TO ENHANCE ASCENT IN THE CENTRAL MEXICAN PLATEAU AND  
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL. PERIODS WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN THE GULF OF  
MEXICO WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ENHANCE DIURNAL SHOWERS  
AND THUNDERSTORMS. IN CENTRAL AMERICA...AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS ALSO  
WELL-ABOVE-AVERAGE AS A MOIST PLUME ORIGINATED OVER THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC CONTINUES DRIFTING NORTHWARD. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT  
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM IN MOST OF COSTA RICA AND IN  
NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND SOUTHERN HONDURAS. IN NORTHERN/CENTRAL  
GUATEMALA AND BELIZE/CHIAPAS EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF  
20-30MM. IN NORTHERN HONDURAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF  
15-25MM...AND IN WESTERN HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR AND ELEVATED TERRAIN  
IN GUATEMALA AND CHIAPAS EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON  
WEDNESDAY...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM IN THE  
PACIFIC BASIN OF COSTA RICA...MOST OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA...EASTERN  
EL SALVADOR AND MOST OF HONDURAS. IN GUATEMALA/BELIZE AND  
SOUTHEAST MEXICO EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. IN  
CENTRAL MEXICO EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-30MM WITH  
SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. ON THURSDAY EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY  
AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM IN COSTA RICA AND IN SOUTHERN HONDURAS/GULF  
OF FONSECA REGION. IN WESTERN EL SALVADOR AND  
GUATEMALA/CHIAPAS...AS WELL AS THE EJE VOLCANICO IN CENTRAL  
MEXICO...EXPECT 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM.  
 
THE ACTIVE CONVECTION IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS FORECAST TO  
START DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY GRADUALLY...AS THE WET  
MJO PULSE MOVES AWAY...AND WESTERLIES IN THE PACIFIC WEAKEN.  
YET...NOTE THAT ACTIVE CONVECTION AND MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS ARE  
STILL EXPECTED ESPECIALLY FROM WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERU INTO MOST  
OF ANDEAN AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. INITIALLY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY  
AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN MOST OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN  
ECUADOR...AND ANDEAN COLOMBIA. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN THE  
SIERRA NEVADA DE SANTA MARTA. ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT THE HEAVIEST  
IN ITCZ CONVERGENCE IN CENTRAL ECUADOR. THIS WILL FAVOR  
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN  
COLOMBIA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-45MM. ON  
THURSDAY...EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN NORTHERN  
AND CENTRAL ECUADOR IN ITCZ CONVERGENCE. IN MOST OF  
CENTRAL...WESTERN AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND  
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.  
 
GALVEZ/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)  

 
 
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