484
FXCA20 KWBC 161304
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
903 AM EDT THU MAR 16 2023
..LAST NO AMENDS
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAR
16/13UTC: A POTENT SURFACE FRONT EXTENDS ALONG 26N 64W...23N 68W
INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/JUST TO THE NORTH OF HISPANIOLA. THIS
SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH...WHICH IS
STIMULATING UPPER DIVERGENCE AND TRIGGERING A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS. FRONTAL CONVECTION IS REACHING AN EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL
OF 350 HPA. OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VI...SATELLITE PRODUCTS SHOW
VERY LITTLE CLOUDINESS AND THE PRESENCE OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY TRADES.
THIS IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SLOPES
OF THE CORDILLERA AND VERY LITTLE - IF ANY - PRECIPITATION.
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WETTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST CYCLE AS
THE FRONT RAPIDLY MOVES INTO THE REGION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE EXPECT MAXIMA
OF 0.5-1 INCH IN MOST OF NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PUERTO
RICO...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN THE 1-1.75 RANGE ARE POSSIBLE
IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST PUERTO RICO. IN THE VI...EXPECT
THE LARGEST AMOUNTS IN VIEQUES AND CULEBRA...WHERE MAXIMA OF 0.5-1
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE IN THE VI AND PUERTO RICO EXPECT
AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.5 RANGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.
NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL FAVOR INTERMITTENT SHOWERS ON FRIDAY
FAVORING MAXIMA UNDER 0.2 INCHES IN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE TRADES THEN SHIFT TO EASTERLIES ON
SATURDAY...WHEN A MINIMA IN PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL FAVOR
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER. ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE MOIST PLUME
REMNANT FROM THE FRONT MOVES IN ACCOMPANIED BY ACCELERATED 15-25KT
TRADES. THIS WILL FAVOR MODERATE AMOUNTS IN EASTERN PUERTO RICO IN
MORNING HOURS...WHERE EXPECT MAXIMA OF 0.2-0.4 INCHES ON BOTH
DAYS. IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO...EXPECT LARGER INSTABILITY ON
MONDAY...WHEN AFTERNOON AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO REACH THE 0.3-0.5
INCH RANGE.
ACOSTA/GALVEZ/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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