471
FXCA20 KWBC 161936
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
335 PM EDT THU MAR 16 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 16 MAR 2023 AT 19 UTC: A WEAKENING FRONT IN
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SONORA ON THURSDAY...AS IT DISSIPATES.
YET...EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...STRONG CYCLOGENESIS IN THE CENTRAL
USA WILL PUSH A SURFACE FRONT SOUTHWARD RAPIDLY. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO REACH THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING. BY
FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THIS FRONT TO EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE INTO A LOW NEAR 23N 95W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...INTO CENTRAL VERACRUZ. BY SATURDAY EVENING EXPECT THE
FRONT ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...SOUTH
FLORIDA...SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL VERACRUZ AND ALONG THE
SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL INTO SOUTHERN NUEVO LEON. A SHORT-LIVED
NORTES EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH WILL TRIGGER
AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
VERACRUZ/HIDALGO IN THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL ON FRIDAY. ON
SATURDAY...EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM
ALONG MOST OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND THE COASTAL PLAIN. IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL INTERACT WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH...TO TRIGGER 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-45MM EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN HONDURAS/EASTERN
GUATEMALA.
ALSO NORTH IN THE DOMAIN...A ROBUST UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
CROSS NORTHWEST MEXICO ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL TRIGGER MODERATE TO
LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION IN THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL OF
SONORA AND SINALOA...FAVORING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM..WHILE EAST OF THE SIERRA ACROSS CHIHUAHUA AND NORTHERN
COAHUILA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.
TO THE EAST...TWO SURFACE FRONTS ARE PROPAGATING ACROSS THE NORTH
ATLANTIC/HISPANIOLA/WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE SOUTHERN FRONT WILL BE
THE MOST CRITICAL IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...AND ITS INTERACTION WITH
THE CURRENT UPPER TROUGH IS HIGHLIGHTING PRECIPITATION IN
HISPANIOLA. NOTE THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRING IN HISPANIOLA ARE
HIGHER THAN GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST AMOUNTS. REGARDING THE POSITION
OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT...BY THURSDAY EVENING EXPECT IT ACROSS
PUERTO RICO/VI...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA NEAR 18N...INTO
THE COZUMEL REGION IN MEXICO. BY FRIDAY EVENING EXPECT THE
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...INTO A WEAKENING
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INTO JAMAICA/CAYMAN
ISLANDS. ON SATURDAY EVENING...EXPECT A WEAKENING STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES. ON THURSDAY...EXPECT
HEAVY RAINFALL IN HISPANIOLA WHERE AMOUNTS WILL REACH 20-40MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 50-100MM IN NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND. IN SOUTHEAST HISPANIOLA EXPECT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 25-50MM...AND 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM ELSEWHERE. IN
PUERTO RICO AND JAMAICA EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
ON FRIDAY...EXPECT THE LARGEST AMOUNTS IN JAMAICA...IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE MOIST PLUME OF THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY. IN THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS EXPECT MAXIMA OF 10MM. LINGERING MOISTURE IN CUBA WILL
FAVOR 05-10MM/DAY AND ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 15MM. ON SATURDAY...THE
MOIST PLUME IN JAMAICA WILL FAVOR 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM...AIDED BY TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE. NOTE THAT ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. IN WESTERN CUBA...THE LINGERING MOIST
PLUME WILL FAVOR MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL CAUSE SOME RAIN TO
DEVELOP OVER COSTA RICA WITH RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY RANGING
FROM 05-10MM WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. SOME RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TODAY ACROSS HONDURAS BUT THE AMOUNTS ARE MODEST...05-10MM WITH
MAXIMAS UP TO 15MM...WHILE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY EVEN LESS RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED. PANAMA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO RECEIVE VERY LITTLE RAIN
OVER THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ECUADOR AND WESTERN COLOMBIA ARE EXPECTED
TO OBSERVE RAINFALL EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. ECUADOR COULD
OBSERVE AS MUCH AS 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS UP TO 25-50MM
TODAY...WHILE SLIGHTLY LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...IN THE ORDER OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM.
HOWEVER...WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL OBSERVE 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF
25-50MM ON FRIDAY...AND 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA UP TO 20-35MM ON
SATURDAY. NORTHERN PERU WILL OBSERVE LITTLE RAIN TODAY...BUT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HAVE SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ECUADOR...THAT OF 10-15MM/DAY WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-35MM. ACROSS THE
REST OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...NORTHERN BRAZIL IS EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...IN AND CLOSE TO THE
NET...WHILE VENEZUELA AND THE GUIANAS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER...WITH LITTLE TO NO RAIN FORECAST OVER
THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THAT BEING SAID...THE RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN
BRAZIL WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
TODAY...NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL IS FORECAST TO OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS OF 15-25MM. ON FRIDAY...A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHERN
BRAZIL COULD OBSERVE 15-20MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 25-50MM...THEN ON
SATURDAY A SMALLER PORTION OF BRAZIL WILL OBSERVE THOSE AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...MAINLY OVER THE AMAZONAS...BUT NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL WILL
OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY WITH MAXIMA OF 15-25MM.
GALVEZ/ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page