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FXCA20 KWBC 201233
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
832 AM EDT MON MAR 20 2023
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM MAR
20/12UTC: THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORKWEEK WILL HAVE MORE RAINFALL
SHOWERS THAN THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AS OF NOW...TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE RAINIEST DAYS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
EASTERN PR...WHILE A DRYING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL ACTIVITY COULD OCCUR
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE IS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY IN PLACE...MOVING VERY LITTLE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AS IT WEAKENS
AND BECOMES STATIONARY BY WEDNESDAY...WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL
ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. FOR TODAY...AN EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED...CAUSING THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
PR TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE ISLAND.
THE WIND WILL THEN CHANGE TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ON
TUESDAY...THEREFORE AFTERNOON SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
WESTERN PR. THEN ON WEDNESDAY ONWARD...A SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTERLY
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED...AFTERNOON SHOWERS AFFECTING PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF PR. THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK...PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING IN...CAUSING THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO BE UP AND DOWN...GENERALLY BETWEEN
1.1 AND 1.6 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHER VALUES BEING OBSERVED IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. FROM THURSDAY ONWARD...THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL DECREASE AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN
MAINLY BETWEEN 0.8 AND 1.2 INCHES...WHICH IS BELOW NORMAL. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT TRADE WIND INVERSION FROM TODAY
UNTIL WEDNESDAY...BUT STARTING VERY LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY...A MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A TRADE WIND INVERSION.
EVERY DAY THIS WEEK...EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PR WILL BE THE
SECTIONS WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN PR...TOTALING NEAR A
HALF AN INCH TODAY...THEN CLOSE TO AN INCH OF RAIN ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN DECREASING SIGNIFICANTLY TO POSSIBLY A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR LESS. THE AFOREMENTIONED AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL
CAUSE...IN GENERAL...AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN TODAY...THEN
ABOUT THREE QUARTERS TO AN INCH OF RAIN ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN VERY LITTLE RAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ACROSS
THE USVI...TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALSO APPEAR TO BE THE WETTEST
DAYS. RAINFALL TOTALS EXPECTED...MAINLY IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS...WILL BE NEAR 0.15 INCHES TODAY...THEN ABOUT A QUARTER TO
A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE USVI.
ACOSTA/ALAMO...WPC (USA)
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