225
FXCA20 KWBC 211857
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
257 PM EDT TUE MAR 21 2023
FORECAST BULLETIN FROM 21 MAR 2023 AT 1845 UTC: A WEAKENING MJO
PATTERN CONTINUES...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MJO ANALYSIS AND
GUIDANCE. THIS WILL SUGGEST THAT THERE IS LESS CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED THIS WEEK ACROSS THE TROPICS...WITH A FEW
LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS. MOST OF MEXICO WOULD BE IN A SUPPRESSED
CONVECTIVE STATE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT THE SUPPRESSION MAY
WEAKEN LATER ON IN THE WEEK. IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERNS...THERE IS A
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN
THAT WILL MEANDER IN THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO PRESENT...CAUSING AN UPPER LEVEL JET EAST OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THERE IS A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...INTO THE
BAHAMAS...THEN STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
THIS FRONT IS WEAKENING...WITH ONLY REMNANTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC BY THURSDAY. THAT SAID...SOME RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES AND
THE BAHAMAS TODAY. MOST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NORTHERN BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SOME RAIN WILL AFFECT TO THE AREA
TODAY...TOTALS RANGING 10-15MM WITH MAXIMAS OF 20-45MM. SOME
RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE OBSERVED ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA
AND CHIHUAHUA...BUT THE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL ME MINIMAL...MAX UP
TO 10MM. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE EVEN MORE FOR THURSDAY. THE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA IS EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
FROM NORTHWESTERN PERU INTO ECUADOR AND COLOMBIA...THEN ALSO
ACROSS BRAZIL ALONG THE NET...WHILE THE GUIANAS WILL RECEIVE SOME
RAINFALL IN ISOLATED AREAS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY
LOOKS WETTER.
IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL...THE WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL CAUSE RAINFALL IN THE ORDER OF 05-10MM/DAY OR SO WITH MAXIMAS
THAT COULD REACH 15MM ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES AND SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS TODAY. MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM BELIZE AND GUATEMALA
TO COSTA RICA WILL SEE AMOUNTS OF RAIN BETWEEN 05-10 MM/DAY...WITH
MAXIMAS BETWEEN 15-25MM. FOR WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERN CUBA AS WELL AS
JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HAITI WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL TOTALS NEAR
05-10MM/DAY WITH MAX NEAR 15MM. NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF MEXICO WILL OBSERVE 05-10MM/DAY MAX
VALUES BETWEEN 15-25MM...WHILE PORTIONS OF HONDURAS EAST THOUGH
COSTA RICA INTO PANAMA COULD OBSERVE MAX VALUES OF 15MM. BY
THURSDAY...ONLY ISOLATED AREAS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. 00-05MM/DAY WITH MAX NEAR 10MM CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. CENTRAL AMERICA AND SOUTHERN
MEXICO WILL OBSERVE BETWEEN 00-10MM WITH MAX UP TO 15MM. THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL RECEIVE PERSISTENT RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS...BUT TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST. RAINFALL TOTALS
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 05-10MM/DAY TODAY
WITH MAX UP TO 15MM...BUT MAXIMAS UP TO 25MM CAN BE EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...THE MOST PERSISTENT RAINFALL OVER
THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL BE ACROSS ECUADOR AND WESTERN COLOMBIA. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL REMAIN RAIN
FREE. ECUADOR AND WESTERN COLOMBIA WILL OBSERVE PERIODS OF
THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE RAINFALL TOTALS COULD BE NEAR 05-10MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 15-25MM TODAY. BUT THEN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...PORTIONS OF ECUADOR MAY OBSERVE 15-20MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 25-50MM....WHILE COLOMBIA WILL OBSERVE 10-15MM/DAY WITH
MAXIMAS OF 20-30MM FOR THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE AMAZONAS STATE IN
BRAZIL EAST INTO THE GUIANAS WILL OBSERVE GENERALLY 05-15MM/DAY
WITH MAXIMAS BETWEEN 15 AND 35MM EACH DAY FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THAT RANGE BEING FORECAST ALONG
THE NET IN BRAZIL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED AREAS OF BRAZIL MAY OBSERVE
UP TO 45MM TODAY.
ALAMO/ACOSTA...WPC (USA)
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